This is actually a decent card compared to most other TUF finales. I'm really looking forward to the lightweight final. It should be one hell of a fight. With that said let's start breaking down the fights.
Roli Delgado v. John Polakowski: I think John has the better stand up and has much more experience (he's actually 2-1 in the WEC). I'll pick John by KO in the first round.
Shane Nelson v. George Roop: Nelson is 10-3 with 4 wins by stoppage. Roop is 8-3 with 5 wins by stoppage. I think Nelson's ground game is better and Roop honestly was one of the worst fighters on the the show. I'll pick Nelson by submission in round 1.
Kyle Kingsbury v. Tom Lawlor: Kingsbury is 7-1 with 5 wins by stoppage. Lawlor is 4-1 with all 4 wins by stoppage. Lawlor is a pure mauler. Kingsbury is more technical but wasn't very impressive. I'm picking Lawlor in this fight by KO in the first round.
Eliot Marshall v. Jules Bruchez: Both of these guys are ground fighters but neither of them were very impressive on the show. I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Jules by decision.
KS v. Shane Primm: KS was very impressive on the show and if he hadn't got caught in the semi final would be fighting on the main card. In any case Primm was nothing special and I expect KS to take care of business by KO in round one.
Junie Browning v. Dave Kaplan: I wish Junie had stuck to his word and never fought again so I didn't have to see his retarded face in the ring anymore. In any case he's fighting and should beat Kaplan who looked inept in his loss to Philippe Nover. I'll pick Junie by KO in the first round.
Wilson Gouveia v. Jason McDonald: Gouveia is 11-5, 5-2 in the UFC, with 10 wins by stoppage. He is mostly a submission fighter but is fairly well rounded. McDonald is 21-10, 5-3 in the UFC, with 20 wins by stoppage. He is a submission fighter. I think McDonald is the better all around fighter so I'm going to pick him by decision.
Kevin Burns v. Anthony Johnson: Burns is 7-2, 2-0 in the UFC, with all 7 wins by stoppage. He is a well rounded fighter. Johnson is 5-2, 2-2 in the UFC, with 3 wins by KO. He is a striker. This was a mandatory rematch after a controversial ruling that Burns won the last fight after repeated pokes to the eye that prevented Johnson from continuing (the injury was so bad he had to have surgery on his eye after the fight). Up until the point of the injury Johnson was winning that fight so I'm going to go off of that and say Johnson wins the fight by KO in round 2.
Ryan Bader v. Vinny Magalhaes: Bader is 7-0 with 6 wins by stoppage. He is a pure wrestler. Vinny is 2-2 with both wins by submission. He is a submission expert. This should be a great ground fight (which will probably bore the audience) but it should be a very interesting chess match on the ground between the wrestler and BJJ artist. I think Vinny is the better fighter so I'll pick him by submission in round one.
Philippe Nover v. Efrain Escudero: Nover is 5-0-1, with 4 wins by stoppage. He is mostly a submission fighter but is pretty well rounded. Efrain is 10-0 with 9 wins by submission. He is a submission fighter. This should be a great fight but obviously I'm pulling for the fighting Phillipino from Brooklyn! In all honesty though Nover was the best fighter on the show this season and I expect him to win handily by KO in the first round.
I wish both Nogueira fighters could win their respective titles but I don't think it's in the cards for Bader. At least one Nogueira fighter is guaranteed the contract and cash (let's hope it's Nover!). This should be a great night of entertaining fights and a solid end to a solid season. My pick for fight of the night is Wilson Gouveia v. Jason McDonald. My pick for KO of the night goes to KS. And my pick for submission of the night goes to Vinny. Stay tuned for my Fight Night and TUF Finale reviews. Until then,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...