UFC 97: Redemption Preview

The UFC heads back to Montreal this weekend. For awhile this card was in jeopardy after another lesser promotion ended in a riot and almost got MMA banned in Montreal. Fortunately the economic stimulus swayed the local commission to let the UFC in using its own set of rules.

Anderson Silva puts his belt back on the line. He will have to face off against submission ace Thales Leites.

In the co-main event two storied strikers face off in a match both desperately need to win. Liddell v. "Shogun" Rua will either be a barn burner or snooze fest depending on how they feel they need to perform to stay relevant in the LHW division i.e. put on a great fight at the risk of losing or stay smart and safe (aka boring).

Let's break down the fights:

Matt Wiman v. Sam Stout: Wiman is 10-4, 4-2 in the UFC, with seven wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with boxing and muay thai skills. Stout is 13-5-1, 2-4 in the UFC, with nine wins by stoppage. He is a striker with good muay thai.

Stout is most likely only on this card because he's Canadian. I think Wiman will probably do the smart thing and use his wrestling to get Stout on his back. I'm picking Wiman to win by decision. We won't be seeing Stout again any time soon.

Ryo Chonan v. TJ Grant: Chonan is 16-8, 1-2 in the UFC, with six wins by stoppage. He's a wrestler with decent striking. Grant is 13-2, making his UFC debut, with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a BJJ fighter with some muay thai.

Normally I hate picking UFC rookies. However, Chonan has never impressed me and Grant has the skills on the ground to win when Chonan wants to put him there. I'm picking Grant to win by decision. Chonan will be in serious trouble of losing his contract after this loss.

Mark Bocek v. David Bielkheden: Bocek is 6-2, 2-2 in the UFC, with five wins by stoppage. He is a BJJ fighter. David is 13-6, 1-1 in the UFC, with nine wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission skills.

This should be a solid clash of styles. I think Bocek will get this fight to the mat and control David. I'll pick Bocek to win by decision.

David Loiseau v. Ed Herman: Loiseau is 18-8, 4-3 in the UFC, with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a kickboxer. Herman is 14-6, 3-4 in the UFC, with 11 wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with some submissions.

Both of these guys are not in good standing with the UFC and both need to win this fight. It should be a good clash of styles. Loiseau has been on a run lately and fighting in front of his home town should be a big boost.

I think Loiseau's stand up will be too much for Herman. I'll pick Loiseau to win by decision. Herman could be out of the UFC for a while with this loss.

Nate Quarry v. Jason MacDonald: Quarry is 10-3, 5-2 in the UFC, with eight wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with solid striking. MacDonald is 21-11, 5-4 in the UFC, with 20 wins by stoppage. He is a BJJ fighter.

I like Quarry in this fight to use good sprawl and brawl to stay off the ground. I'll pick Quarry to win by TKO in the second round. MacDonald may not have a good record in the UFC with this loss but he's a regular gatekeeper for them and isn't in any real danger of losing his contract.

Denis Kang v. Xavier Foupa-Pokam: Kang is 31-11-1, 0-1 in the UFC, with 27 wins by stoppage. He is a BJJ fighter with good boxing. Xavier is 20-8, making his UFC debut, with 18 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with good muay thai.

Kang needs a better showing than in his last fight and I think he'll have it in his home country. This time I definitely won't be picking the rookie. Kang is too well rounded for Xavier. Kang will take this fight to the mat and win by submission in the second round.

Vinny Magalhaes v. Eliot Marshall: Vinny is 2-3, 0-1 in the UFC, with both wins by submission. He is a BJJ fighter. Marshall is 6-1, 1-0 in the UFC, with all six wins by stoppage. He is also a BJJ fighter.

This is a match up of TUF 8 teammates. More importantly it is a match up of two talented BJJ artists. I think Vinny is the better BJJ fighter so I'm going to pick him to win by decision.

I think the UFC purposefully gave Vinny a guy who couldn't strike or wrestle the way Bader did. Vinny should be able to get Eliot to the ground and control him. However, Eliot is no slouch on the ground so I'm not convinced Vinny can get the submission.

Luiz Cane v. Steve Cantwell: Cane is 9-1, 2-1 in the UFC, with all nine wins by stoppage. He is a muay thai fighter with some BJJ. Cantwell is 7-1, 1-0 in the UFC, with all seven wins by stoppage. He has solid striking and submissions.

If Cantwell is smart he'll get this fight to the ground. However, I think Cane is too good no matter where they go. I'll pick Cane to win by TKO in the first round.

Cheick Kongo v. Antoni Hardonk: Kongo is 18-4-1, 6-2 in the UFC, with 10 wins by stoppage. He is a muay thai fighter. Hardonk is 8-4, 5-2 in the UFC, with all eight wins by stoppage. He is a kickboxer.

This should be a great stand up battle. Hardonk needs to go to his devastating leg kicks early and often. Unfortunately I don't feel like his striking compares to Kongo's and he hasn't faced the same competition Kongo has. I'm picking Kongo to win by decision.

Brian Stann v. Krzysztof Soszynski: Stann is 6-1, making his UFC debut, with all six wins by KO. He is a striker. KS is 16-8-1, 1-0 in the UFC, with 13 wins by stoppage. He has solid striking and submissions.

KS should take this fight to the ground. I haven't seen anything out of Stann, who came over after the WEC folded its LHW division, that says he can hang on the ground. I like KS to take the fight to the mat and earn a decision victory.

Chuck Liddell v. Mauricio Rua: Liddell is 21-6, 16-5 in the UFC, with 15 wins by stoppage. He is a kickboxer with solid wrestling. Rua is 17-3, 1-1 in the UFC, with 15 wins by stoppage. He is a muay thai fighter with some BJJ.

This should be a great match up of legendary strikers. Hopefully it turns into the war we all hope for like it did with Wanderlei. Neither fighter has looked good recently. However, Liddell put on a good show against Wanderlei and was competitive in the Rashad Evans fight.

Liddell may be older but he's shown me a lot more than "Shogun" has in his last two fights. I'm gong to pick Liddell to win by decision.

Anderson Silva v. Thales Leites: Silva is 23-4, 8-0 in the UFC, with 18 wins by stoppage. He is a muay thai fighter with solid BJJ. Leites is 14-1, 5-1 in the UFC, with 10 wins by stoppage. He is a BJJ fighter.

I'm pretty upset that guys like Maia and especially Okami got passed over for this title shot, but here we are. Leites is one dimensional and not nearly as effective in that dimension as Maia. Silva just needs to keep this fight on the feet and he should walk through Leites.

I'll pick Silva to win by TKO in the second round. This will break Royce Gracie's and Jon Fitch's streak of eight UFC wins in a row. This title defense will also tie Matt Hughes' streak of five consecutive title defenses.

This should be a fun night based on the last time the UFC was in Montreal and the fighters on the card. My pick for submission of the night goes to Denis Kang. My pick for KO of the night goes to Anderson Silva. And my pick for fight of the night goes to Liddell v. Rua.

There you have it folks. Stay tuned for my TUF 9 episode three review and my UFC 97 review. Until then,

Soccer kicks and head stomps...