Time for this month's fighter rankings. Please comment and let me know where I got it right or wrong. Enjoy!
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
1. Fedor Emelianenko
2. Frank Mir
3. Brock Lesnar
4. Josh Barnett
5. Alitair Overeem
6. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
7. Randy Couture
8. Shane Carwin
9. Brett Rodgers
10. Cain Velasquez
Also receiving consideration: Jeff Monson, Mirko Cro Cop, and Fabricio Werdum
Note: Andrei Arlovski and Tim Sylvia both fall out of consideration after losing badly to fighters who were not in consideration until now. Brett Rodgers and Cain Velasquez have taken their places after Rodgers beat Arlovski and Velasquez beat fellow contender Cheick Kongo. Kongo falls out of consideration after that loss.
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
1. Lyoto Machida
2. Rashad Evans
3. Forrest Griffin
4. Quinton Jackson
5. Renato Sobral
6. Luis Cane
7. Mauricio Rua
8. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
9. Thiago Silva
10. Rich Franklin
Also receiving consideration: Keith Jardine
No changes made to this list as everyone was inactive except Rich Franklin who fought at 195 lbs.
Middleweight (185 pounds)
1. Anderson Silva
2. Dan Henderson
3. Nate Marquardt
4. Demian Maia
5. Yushin Okami
6. Vitor Belfort
7. Robbie Lawler
8. Jorge Santiago
9. Yoshihiro Akiyama
10. Mike Bisping
Also receiving consideration: Thales Leites, Chael Sonnen, Kazuo Mizaki, Hector Lombard, and Nick Diaz
Robbie Lawler lost but to an elite fighter outside of his weight class so it won't be counted against him on this list. Hector Lombard was added to the considered list after winning the Bellator middleweight tournament. Nick Diaz was added to the considered list after beating Frank Shamrock and Scott Smith.
Welterweight (170 pounds)
1. Georges St. Pierre
2. Thiago Alves
3. Jon Fitch
4. Jake Shields
5. Mike Swick
6. Martin Kampmann
7. Carlos Condit
8. Dan Hardy
9. Paulo Thiago
10. Frank Trigg
Also receiving consideration: Hayato Sakurai, Matt Hughes, Brock Larson, Josh Koscheck, Jay Hieron, and Karo Parisyan
Note: Shields moves up to the fourth spot after beating Robbie Lawler in a higher weight class. Kampmann moves down due to Swick's impressive win over Ben Saunders. Hardy replaces Marcus Davis who has fallen off the list after losing to Hardy. And Nick Thompson falls off the list after losing to Tim Kennedy.
Lightweight (155 pounds)
1. BJ Penn
2. Shinya Aoki
3. Eddie Alvarez
4. Joachim Hansen
5. Kenny Florian
6. Tatsuya Kawajiri
7. Gesias Calvancante
8. Josh Thomson
9. Gray Maynard
10. Frankie Edgar
Also receiving consideration: Sean Sherk, Satoru Kitaoka, Diego Sanchez, and Spencer Fisher
Note: Caol Uno comes off the considered list after his loss to Spencer Fisher.
Featherweight (145 pounds)
1. Mike Brown
2. Wagnney Fabiano
3. Urijah Faber
4. Jose Aldo
5. Leonard Garcia
6. Hatsu Hioki
7. Takeshi Inoue
8. Rafael Assuncao
9. Bibiano Fernandes
10. Marlon Sandro
Also receiving consideration: Nam Phan, Hideki Kadakowi, Hiroyuki Takaya, Joe Warren, Joe Soto, and Josh Grispi
Note: Fabiano and Faber switch places after Faber's second loss to Brown. Aldo hops Garcia after an impressive win over Cub Swanson. Antonio Cavalho falls off the considered list after a year of inactivity. Joe Soto is added to the considered list after winning the Bellator featherweight tournament. And Josh Grispi is added to the list after his impressive win over Jens Pulver.
Bantamweight (135 points)
1. Miguel Torres
2. Brian Bowles
3. Masakatsu Ueda
4. Joseph Benavidez
5. Damacio Page
6. Akitoshi Tamura
7. Takeya Mizugaki
8. Will Ribeiro
9. Marcos Galvao
10. Rani Yahya
Also receiving consideration: Manny Tapia, Atsushi Yamamoto, Mark Oshiro, Dominic Cruz, Chris Cariaso, Jeff Curran, Anotonio Banuelos, and Wilson Reis
Note: Scott Jorgensen falls off the considered list after losing to Antonio Banuelos. As a result Banuelos takes his spot on the list. And Wilson Reis is added to the list after a good run in Bellator.
POUND-FOR-POUND
1. Georges St. Pierre
2. Anderson Silva
3. Fedor Emelianenko
4. Lyoto Machida
5. Miguel Torres
6. BJ Penn
7. Rashad Evans
8. Thiago Alves
9. Mike Brown
10. Forrest Griffin
Also receiving consideration: Quinton Jackson
Note: Brown moves up to number nine after beating Faber again. Faber moves off the list while Griffin and Jackson slide down.
Please check out my weekly news article on InsideFights "No News Barred" every Wednesday. Until next time,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
John Shubert is a staff writer at InsideFights
Sunday, June 21, 2009
The Ultimate Fighter Nine Finale Recap
This card delivered in full with two barn burners, a great finish, and two more very competitive fights. Clay Guida and Diego Sanchez stole the show while the Brits cleaned house to claim both prizes on this season of The Ultimate Fighter.
Unfortunately, four out of the five main card fights went to decision so no preliminary bouts were shown.
Jason Dent v. Cameron Dollar: I predicted that it would end by submission in the first round and that's exactly what happened. Dent comes away with a victory by anaconda choke. Dent may wind up being the biggest sleeper from this season, just like Ben Saunders was from season six.
Nick Osipczak v. Frank Lester: No suprises here as Nick wins by rear naked choke in the first round. I gave Frank a little more credit for the toughness that he displayed during the show but I definitely got the pick right. Nick will challenge Dent for biggest sleeper from this season and could wind up having a better career than the lightweight winner.
Mike Ciesnolevicz v. Tomasz Drwal: Mike came in three pounds over the 205 pound limit, so this battle was contested at a catch weight. Drwal finished the fight by TKO in the first round.
Brad Blackburn v. Edgar Garcia: Blackburn pulls out the split decision victory here. I definitely didn't give Garcia enough credit for how tough he is. However, I will note that during the broadcast Joe Rogan pointed out that the decisions on the under card were iffy at best. So with this being a split decision I'll take the credit for getting the pick right but I'll take it with a grain of salt.
Melvin Guillard v. Gleison Tibau: Another split decision gave the fight to Guillard. Again I didn't give the competition enough credit for his toughness as Tibau lasts the whole fight. I got the pick right but again I'll take it with a grain of salt apparently due to iffy judging.
Joe Stevenson v. Nate Diaz: What a difference a camp can make. I was unaware of the fact that Stevenson had gone to train with the famed Greg Jackson camp. He looked like a completely different fighter than in his last two fights.
Stevenson was not predictable, he was prepared, he looked improved, and he had a rock solid gameplan. Stevenson said it best when he remarked about having Jackson in his corner, "it's like having Chuck Norris in your corner, it's almost unfair."
Stevenson came in and just took it to Diaz. He played it safe and kept the pressure on Diaz while making sure the fight took place on the mat. He didn't give Diaz any distance on the feet with the exception of the last minute of the fight when he already had the fight won.
On the ground he did the same thing making sure that he always stayed close to Diaz and trying to stay aggressive. He did a great job of posturing out of any of Diaz's submission attempts and almost finished a guillotine of his own. Neither man was in a whole lot of trouble in this fight but it was obvious who was in control the entire time.
Diaz looked totally overwhelmed in this fight and must work on his wrestling in order to avoid another loss like in his last two fights. This was a great comeback win for Stevenson who looks like he can still be relevant in the lightweight division now that he's moved camps. Diaz needs a win badly in his next fight to remain in the UFC.
I got the prediction right but didn't pick the right fighter. Stevenson took the unanimous decision victory.
Andre Winner v. Ross Pearson: This was a very competitive fight. Both guys traded shots on the feet though Winner obviously had the better technical striking. However, Pearson definitely landed the more damaging shots. I was a little surprised though that Pearson wasn't as good with the takedowns.
This was still a very competitive fight from start to finish but it went nothing like I thought it would. Pearson picks up the unanimous decision victory picking up the first win for the Brits along with the six figure UFC contract. I got the pick right but not the prediction.
I think there's a very good chance Dent and Osipczak could wind up being better than Pearson. He just doesn't impress me. And even though I know there's no chance of this happening, I would love to see Pearson fight Dent next.
Chris Lytle v. Kevin Burns: This would have been fight of the night on any other card. These guys, who are both accomplished grapplers, went toe to toe for three rounds. They battled like warriors.
Both guys came out swinging and Burns caught Lytle with a good uppercut in the first round that had him rocked. Lytle hung in there and was able to recover between rounds. In the second round Lytle bounced back and was pounding away at the body of Burns which was visibly wearing him down.
In the third Lytle poured it on and bloodied up Burns pretty good. It was a great war but one that Lytle definitely deserved to win as he got the unanimous decision victory.
Damarques Johnson v. James Wilks: What an impressive display by Wilks. I thought this would be a close fight and boy was I wrong. Wilks came out and just battered Johnson on the feet.
Wilks eventually got the fight to the ground, secured Johnson's back and finished the fight with a rear naked choke right at the end of the first round. This was a very disappointing showing for Johnson who was supposedly the best the Americans had to offer this season.
Wilks picks up a well deserved win and six figure UFC contract. This win made it a sweep for the Brits on this season of TUF which is very disappointing for me. Hopefully if the UFC decides to do another country v. country season the U.S. team will have a better showing.
Diego Sanchez v. Clay Guida: In an opening stanza reminiscent of Don Frye v. Yoshihiro Takayama these two opened up on each other like wild wolverines in heat. Sanchez had Guida up against the proverbial ropes but Guida battled back to get back in the fight.
Sanchez went on to land a brutal head kick that would've finished 99% of the fighters in the UFC, but not Guida. He got right back up and kept plugging. The first round was so one sided one judge gave Sanchez a 10-8 round which is almost unheard of in mixed martial arts.
The second round was definitely Guida's as he took Sanchez down right away and kept the pressure on with some solid ground pound though nothing hurt Sanchez. Sanchez landed some good elbows that bloodied up Guida but didn't seem to phase him.
The third round belonged to Sanchez. He scored some points on the feet and then slipped up going for a submission and wound up on his back. However, he totally neutralized Guida's ground and pound with another submission attempt to lock up the round.
Sanchez pulls away with a split decision victory and a fight of the night award.
It was a great fight and there's nothing for Guida to be ashamed of. He'll be right back in the mix at 155 in no time.
This is a huge victory for Diego Sanchez. I think he is one win away from a title shot. I'd like to see him face a top level guy like Gray Maynard or Frankie Edgar for a shot at the winner of Penn v. Florian.
Unfortunately, four out of the five main card fights went to decision so no preliminary bouts were shown.
Jason Dent v. Cameron Dollar: I predicted that it would end by submission in the first round and that's exactly what happened. Dent comes away with a victory by anaconda choke. Dent may wind up being the biggest sleeper from this season, just like Ben Saunders was from season six.
Nick Osipczak v. Frank Lester: No suprises here as Nick wins by rear naked choke in the first round. I gave Frank a little more credit for the toughness that he displayed during the show but I definitely got the pick right. Nick will challenge Dent for biggest sleeper from this season and could wind up having a better career than the lightweight winner.
Mike Ciesnolevicz v. Tomasz Drwal: Mike came in three pounds over the 205 pound limit, so this battle was contested at a catch weight. Drwal finished the fight by TKO in the first round.
Brad Blackburn v. Edgar Garcia: Blackburn pulls out the split decision victory here. I definitely didn't give Garcia enough credit for how tough he is. However, I will note that during the broadcast Joe Rogan pointed out that the decisions on the under card were iffy at best. So with this being a split decision I'll take the credit for getting the pick right but I'll take it with a grain of salt.
Melvin Guillard v. Gleison Tibau: Another split decision gave the fight to Guillard. Again I didn't give the competition enough credit for his toughness as Tibau lasts the whole fight. I got the pick right but again I'll take it with a grain of salt apparently due to iffy judging.
Joe Stevenson v. Nate Diaz: What a difference a camp can make. I was unaware of the fact that Stevenson had gone to train with the famed Greg Jackson camp. He looked like a completely different fighter than in his last two fights.
Stevenson was not predictable, he was prepared, he looked improved, and he had a rock solid gameplan. Stevenson said it best when he remarked about having Jackson in his corner, "it's like having Chuck Norris in your corner, it's almost unfair."
Stevenson came in and just took it to Diaz. He played it safe and kept the pressure on Diaz while making sure the fight took place on the mat. He didn't give Diaz any distance on the feet with the exception of the last minute of the fight when he already had the fight won.
On the ground he did the same thing making sure that he always stayed close to Diaz and trying to stay aggressive. He did a great job of posturing out of any of Diaz's submission attempts and almost finished a guillotine of his own. Neither man was in a whole lot of trouble in this fight but it was obvious who was in control the entire time.
Diaz looked totally overwhelmed in this fight and must work on his wrestling in order to avoid another loss like in his last two fights. This was a great comeback win for Stevenson who looks like he can still be relevant in the lightweight division now that he's moved camps. Diaz needs a win badly in his next fight to remain in the UFC.
I got the prediction right but didn't pick the right fighter. Stevenson took the unanimous decision victory.
Andre Winner v. Ross Pearson: This was a very competitive fight. Both guys traded shots on the feet though Winner obviously had the better technical striking. However, Pearson definitely landed the more damaging shots. I was a little surprised though that Pearson wasn't as good with the takedowns.
This was still a very competitive fight from start to finish but it went nothing like I thought it would. Pearson picks up the unanimous decision victory picking up the first win for the Brits along with the six figure UFC contract. I got the pick right but not the prediction.
I think there's a very good chance Dent and Osipczak could wind up being better than Pearson. He just doesn't impress me. And even though I know there's no chance of this happening, I would love to see Pearson fight Dent next.
Chris Lytle v. Kevin Burns: This would have been fight of the night on any other card. These guys, who are both accomplished grapplers, went toe to toe for three rounds. They battled like warriors.
Both guys came out swinging and Burns caught Lytle with a good uppercut in the first round that had him rocked. Lytle hung in there and was able to recover between rounds. In the second round Lytle bounced back and was pounding away at the body of Burns which was visibly wearing him down.
In the third Lytle poured it on and bloodied up Burns pretty good. It was a great war but one that Lytle definitely deserved to win as he got the unanimous decision victory.
Damarques Johnson v. James Wilks: What an impressive display by Wilks. I thought this would be a close fight and boy was I wrong. Wilks came out and just battered Johnson on the feet.
Wilks eventually got the fight to the ground, secured Johnson's back and finished the fight with a rear naked choke right at the end of the first round. This was a very disappointing showing for Johnson who was supposedly the best the Americans had to offer this season.
Wilks picks up a well deserved win and six figure UFC contract. This win made it a sweep for the Brits on this season of TUF which is very disappointing for me. Hopefully if the UFC decides to do another country v. country season the U.S. team will have a better showing.
Diego Sanchez v. Clay Guida: In an opening stanza reminiscent of Don Frye v. Yoshihiro Takayama these two opened up on each other like wild wolverines in heat. Sanchez had Guida up against the proverbial ropes but Guida battled back to get back in the fight.
Sanchez went on to land a brutal head kick that would've finished 99% of the fighters in the UFC, but not Guida. He got right back up and kept plugging. The first round was so one sided one judge gave Sanchez a 10-8 round which is almost unheard of in mixed martial arts.
The second round was definitely Guida's as he took Sanchez down right away and kept the pressure on with some solid ground pound though nothing hurt Sanchez. Sanchez landed some good elbows that bloodied up Guida but didn't seem to phase him.
The third round belonged to Sanchez. He scored some points on the feet and then slipped up going for a submission and wound up on his back. However, he totally neutralized Guida's ground and pound with another submission attempt to lock up the round.
Sanchez pulls away with a split decision victory and a fight of the night award.
It was a great fight and there's nothing for Guida to be ashamed of. He'll be right back in the mix at 155 in no time.
This is a huge victory for Diego Sanchez. I think he is one win away from a title shot. I'd like to see him face a top level guy like Gray Maynard or Frankie Edgar for a shot at the winner of Penn v. Florian.
The Ultimate Fighter Nine Finale Preview
Another season of The Ultimate Fighter has come and gone. This season saw the Brits take on the Americans for MMA supremacy. The Brits finished with three out of the four finalists guaranteeing themselves at least a tie for which team won this season.
The main card features both the lightweight and welterweight finals as well as two pivotal lightweight match ups. Two Brits duke it out for the lightweight title while the lone American, Damarques Johnson, battles rival James Wilks for the welterweight crown.
In a match that will probably lead to a number one contender’s match Diego Sanchez will take on fan favorite Clay Guida. Rounding out the card is Joe Stevenson v. Nate Diaz who are both in need of a win. In fact both fighters lost to one of the two guys in the main event in their most recent fight.
Surprisingly only four fighters from the show will round out the undercard. Let’s start to break down these fights:
Jason Dent v. Cameron Dollar: Dent is 18-9, 0-2 in the UFC, with 18 wins by stoppage. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter. Dollar is 2-1, making his UFC debut, with both wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler.
Dent is a really tough dude with a good ground game. Dollar is a good wrestler but he is susceptible on the ground. I like Dent due to his experience and prior fights in the UFC so he’s used to the big stage. I’m picking Dent to win by submission in the first round.
Nick Osipczak v. Frank Lester: Nick is 3-0, making his UFC debut, with all three wins by stoppage. Nick is a striker. Lester is 3-2, also making his UFC debut, with all three wins by KO. He is also a striker.
This is going to be another tough fight for Lester who undoubtedly was the toughest guy in the house this season. Nick is long and a more technically sound striker than Lester, just like James Wilks, who had to beat Lester twice to make it to the finals. I expect Nick to pick Lester apart, wear him down, and get the finish. I’m picking Nick to win by TKO in the third round.
Mike Ciesnolevicz v. Tomasz Drwal: Mike is 17-3, 1-0 in the UFC, with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a well rounded fighter with solid striking and submissions. Drwal is 15-2, 1-1 in the UFC, with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a striker.
Mike would be smart to put Drwal on his back. I think Mike’s wrestling and submission game is too good for Drwal’s striking which Mike is no slouch at. Plus Mike comes out of a great camp in Team Miletich so he should have a solid gameplan coming into this fight. I’m picking Mike by submission in the first round.
Brad Blackburn v. Edgar Garcia: Blackburn is 16-9-1, 2-0 in the UFC, with 12 wins by stoppage. He is a striker. Garcia is 7-0, making his UFC debut, with six wins by stoppage. He is also a striker.
This should be an entertaining stand up battle. I like Blackburn’s experience to be the difference especially on the big stage. I’m picking Blackburn to win by TKO in the first round.
Melvin Guillard v. Gleison Tibau: Guillard is 21-7-2, 4-3 in the UFC, with 16 wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with good muay thai. Tibau is 16-6, 5-3 in the UFC, with 10 wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler and jiu-jitsu fighter.
This should be a good clash of styles. The key to this fight is whose wrestling is better. If Guillard can sprawl and brawl he will have the advantage. If Tibau gets the fight to the mat he has the advantage. I like Guillard’s wrestling so I’m picking Guillard by TKO in the second round.
Chris Lytle v. Kevin Burns: Lytle is 26-17-5, 5-9 in the UFC, with 22 wins by stoppage. He is grappler with good wrestling and jiu-jitsu but also has decent boxing. Burns is 7-2, 2-1 in the UFC, with all seven wins by stoppage. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter.
Burns may have the better record but Lytle has a more well rounded game and a world of experience against better competition. Lytle would be smart to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing and use his boxing where he probably has an advantage. Burns can certainly hold his own and this will be a tough fight but I see Lytle pulling out the decision victory.
Joe Stevenson v. Nate Diaz: Stevenson is 29-10, 6-4 in the UFC, with 19 wins by stoppage. He is wrestler and jiu-jitsu fighter. Diaz is 10-3, 5-1 in the UFC, with nine wins by stoppage. He is jiu-jitsu fighter with some boxing.
As much as I like Joe “Daddy” this is going to be a really tough fight. He hasn’t looked great on his feet in his last two losses and Diaz has the length advantage to keep him at bey and outpoint him all night. Stevenson’s wrestling is better but once the fight is on the mat he’ll have to be very careful with Diaz’s jiu-jitsu. Stevenson is no slouch on the ground but his wrestling isn’t as good as Guida’s who used it to stall Diaz in their last match.
This fight will come down to two things. Can Stevenson get inside of Diaz’s reach to score points on the feet? Or can he do any damage once on the ground without getting caught by Diaz? I think in both cases Stevenson is going to have to take a lot of risks to win this fight and I just don’t like the odds. I think Diaz will use his reach to stay outside and away from Stevenson’s takedowns. He doesn’t have the KO power to finish the fight but I expect him to outpoint Stevenson on the feet for the decision win.
That would make it three losses in a row for Stevenson who can’t afford to give up any more ground in the division. If he loses this fight it’s going to be a very long, hard road back to title contention.
Andre Winner v. Ross Pearson: Winner is 9-2, making his UFC debut, with four wins by stoppage. He is a boxer. Pearson is 8-3, also making his UFC debut, with seven wins by stoppage. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter.
This will be another good clash of styles. The winner here will be the one who can impose his will on the other to get the fight to where they want it. I like Pearson’s style and toughness to get the fight to the mat where he should have the advantage. I see Pearson winning the first six figure contract by submission in the second round.
Damarques Johnson v. James Wilks: Johnson is 9-6, making his UFC debut, with eight wins by stoppage. He is a well rounded fighter with solid boxing and jiu-jitsu skills. Wilks is 5-2, also making his UFC debut, with all five wins by stoppage. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter with solid stand up.
This should be a good scrap between two guys who have no love lost for each other. I don’t think either will let their emotions get in the way of that contract but you never know. I think both showed well rounded skills but I liked what I saw out of Johnson more.
I don’t think Johnson is significantly better than Wilks so I think Johnson will earn a tough decision victory for the second UFC contract. This will leave the season tied between the two teams though there should be an asterisk in regards to the fact that there were three Brits in the finals.
Diego Sanchez v. Clay Guida: Sanchez is 20-2, 9-2 in the UFC, with 15 wins by stoppage. He is a a wrestler with solid jiu-jitsu and muay thai. Guida is 25-9, 5-3 in the UFC, with 16 wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with solid boxing and muay thai.
I love Clay Guida but Sanchez is simply the better fighter. Guida relies on his wrestling far too much and it just won’t carry him to a win in this fight. Sanchez is as good as, if not better than, Guida at wrestling and Sanchez has a distinct size advantage. This fight will take place where Sanchez wants it to and I don’t think he’ll take it to the ground unless he has to.
I think Sanchez has the better stand up and it will show in this fight. Guida is a tough guy and has never actually been KO’d so it will be interesting to see if Sanchez can put a chink in that armor. I think Sanchez will beat up Guida pretty good on the feet to earn himself a decision victory.
This should be a solid night of free fights and a good end to another season of The Ultimate Fighter. My pick for submission of the night goes to Mike Ciesnolevicz. My pick for KO of the night goes to Brad Blackburn. My pick for fight of the night goes to Sanchez v. Guida.
That’s all for now. Stay tuned for my TUF 9 Finale recap and as always No News Barred every week on InsideFights. Until then,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
The main card features both the lightweight and welterweight finals as well as two pivotal lightweight match ups. Two Brits duke it out for the lightweight title while the lone American, Damarques Johnson, battles rival James Wilks for the welterweight crown.
In a match that will probably lead to a number one contender’s match Diego Sanchez will take on fan favorite Clay Guida. Rounding out the card is Joe Stevenson v. Nate Diaz who are both in need of a win. In fact both fighters lost to one of the two guys in the main event in their most recent fight.
Surprisingly only four fighters from the show will round out the undercard. Let’s start to break down these fights:
Jason Dent v. Cameron Dollar: Dent is 18-9, 0-2 in the UFC, with 18 wins by stoppage. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter. Dollar is 2-1, making his UFC debut, with both wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler.
Dent is a really tough dude with a good ground game. Dollar is a good wrestler but he is susceptible on the ground. I like Dent due to his experience and prior fights in the UFC so he’s used to the big stage. I’m picking Dent to win by submission in the first round.
Nick Osipczak v. Frank Lester: Nick is 3-0, making his UFC debut, with all three wins by stoppage. Nick is a striker. Lester is 3-2, also making his UFC debut, with all three wins by KO. He is also a striker.
This is going to be another tough fight for Lester who undoubtedly was the toughest guy in the house this season. Nick is long and a more technically sound striker than Lester, just like James Wilks, who had to beat Lester twice to make it to the finals. I expect Nick to pick Lester apart, wear him down, and get the finish. I’m picking Nick to win by TKO in the third round.
Mike Ciesnolevicz v. Tomasz Drwal: Mike is 17-3, 1-0 in the UFC, with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a well rounded fighter with solid striking and submissions. Drwal is 15-2, 1-1 in the UFC, with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a striker.
Mike would be smart to put Drwal on his back. I think Mike’s wrestling and submission game is too good for Drwal’s striking which Mike is no slouch at. Plus Mike comes out of a great camp in Team Miletich so he should have a solid gameplan coming into this fight. I’m picking Mike by submission in the first round.
Brad Blackburn v. Edgar Garcia: Blackburn is 16-9-1, 2-0 in the UFC, with 12 wins by stoppage. He is a striker. Garcia is 7-0, making his UFC debut, with six wins by stoppage. He is also a striker.
This should be an entertaining stand up battle. I like Blackburn’s experience to be the difference especially on the big stage. I’m picking Blackburn to win by TKO in the first round.
Melvin Guillard v. Gleison Tibau: Guillard is 21-7-2, 4-3 in the UFC, with 16 wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with good muay thai. Tibau is 16-6, 5-3 in the UFC, with 10 wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler and jiu-jitsu fighter.
This should be a good clash of styles. The key to this fight is whose wrestling is better. If Guillard can sprawl and brawl he will have the advantage. If Tibau gets the fight to the mat he has the advantage. I like Guillard’s wrestling so I’m picking Guillard by TKO in the second round.
Chris Lytle v. Kevin Burns: Lytle is 26-17-5, 5-9 in the UFC, with 22 wins by stoppage. He is grappler with good wrestling and jiu-jitsu but also has decent boxing. Burns is 7-2, 2-1 in the UFC, with all seven wins by stoppage. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter.
Burns may have the better record but Lytle has a more well rounded game and a world of experience against better competition. Lytle would be smart to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing and use his boxing where he probably has an advantage. Burns can certainly hold his own and this will be a tough fight but I see Lytle pulling out the decision victory.
Joe Stevenson v. Nate Diaz: Stevenson is 29-10, 6-4 in the UFC, with 19 wins by stoppage. He is wrestler and jiu-jitsu fighter. Diaz is 10-3, 5-1 in the UFC, with nine wins by stoppage. He is jiu-jitsu fighter with some boxing.
As much as I like Joe “Daddy” this is going to be a really tough fight. He hasn’t looked great on his feet in his last two losses and Diaz has the length advantage to keep him at bey and outpoint him all night. Stevenson’s wrestling is better but once the fight is on the mat he’ll have to be very careful with Diaz’s jiu-jitsu. Stevenson is no slouch on the ground but his wrestling isn’t as good as Guida’s who used it to stall Diaz in their last match.
This fight will come down to two things. Can Stevenson get inside of Diaz’s reach to score points on the feet? Or can he do any damage once on the ground without getting caught by Diaz? I think in both cases Stevenson is going to have to take a lot of risks to win this fight and I just don’t like the odds. I think Diaz will use his reach to stay outside and away from Stevenson’s takedowns. He doesn’t have the KO power to finish the fight but I expect him to outpoint Stevenson on the feet for the decision win.
That would make it three losses in a row for Stevenson who can’t afford to give up any more ground in the division. If he loses this fight it’s going to be a very long, hard road back to title contention.
Andre Winner v. Ross Pearson: Winner is 9-2, making his UFC debut, with four wins by stoppage. He is a boxer. Pearson is 8-3, also making his UFC debut, with seven wins by stoppage. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter.
This will be another good clash of styles. The winner here will be the one who can impose his will on the other to get the fight to where they want it. I like Pearson’s style and toughness to get the fight to the mat where he should have the advantage. I see Pearson winning the first six figure contract by submission in the second round.
Damarques Johnson v. James Wilks: Johnson is 9-6, making his UFC debut, with eight wins by stoppage. He is a well rounded fighter with solid boxing and jiu-jitsu skills. Wilks is 5-2, also making his UFC debut, with all five wins by stoppage. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter with solid stand up.
This should be a good scrap between two guys who have no love lost for each other. I don’t think either will let their emotions get in the way of that contract but you never know. I think both showed well rounded skills but I liked what I saw out of Johnson more.
I don’t think Johnson is significantly better than Wilks so I think Johnson will earn a tough decision victory for the second UFC contract. This will leave the season tied between the two teams though there should be an asterisk in regards to the fact that there were three Brits in the finals.
Diego Sanchez v. Clay Guida: Sanchez is 20-2, 9-2 in the UFC, with 15 wins by stoppage. He is a a wrestler with solid jiu-jitsu and muay thai. Guida is 25-9, 5-3 in the UFC, with 16 wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with solid boxing and muay thai.
I love Clay Guida but Sanchez is simply the better fighter. Guida relies on his wrestling far too much and it just won’t carry him to a win in this fight. Sanchez is as good as, if not better than, Guida at wrestling and Sanchez has a distinct size advantage. This fight will take place where Sanchez wants it to and I don’t think he’ll take it to the ground unless he has to.
I think Sanchez has the better stand up and it will show in this fight. Guida is a tough guy and has never actually been KO’d so it will be interesting to see if Sanchez can put a chink in that armor. I think Sanchez will beat up Guida pretty good on the feet to earn himself a decision victory.
This should be a solid night of free fights and a good end to another season of The Ultimate Fighter. My pick for submission of the night goes to Mike Ciesnolevicz. My pick for KO of the night goes to Brad Blackburn. My pick for fight of the night goes to Sanchez v. Guida.
That’s all for now. Stay tuned for my TUF 9 Finale recap and as always No News Barred every week on InsideFights. Until then,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Thursday, June 18, 2009
The Ultimate Fighter Nine: Episode Twelve Review
Well this was the last week on this season of The Ultimate Fighter. It featured the final welterweight semi-final to find out who the last finalist is to move on to the finale this Saturday. All in all it was a solid end to a solid season.
The episode starts off with Dan Henderson going over to the house for one last meal with the boys. Everything goes off without a hitch. Though there is some light hearted ribbing of Dan's fairly mockable cauliflower ears - not as subtle as BJ Penn but not alien looking like James Thompson.
We move on to the training sessions where Henderson implores Frank Lester to not brawl with James Wilks and to throw straighter punches. Frank looks much more relaxed than their last time fighting each other.
In fact it's so noticeable that the U.K. team warns Wilks not to underestimate Lester. They all tell Wilks he has an even better puncher's chance than before due to his new found state of mind.
We even see Wilks and Lester hanging out cutting weight and Lester got all philosophical on Wilks. The producers also decided to show a nice moment between the two where they signed each other's jerseys and talked about Lester's daughter. I found this to be odd but it was still nice to see that just because you fight each other doesn't mean you have to hate the other guy.
After that we move on to the U.K. team's final dinner where they brought their coaches over. There was a particularly great moment where Wilks tricks Bisping into trying to slap a non existent coin off his forehead in what was a pretty funny party trick.
After that the dinner degenerated into a food fight and eventually Andre Winner getting thrown in the pool with a bag of flour dumped on his face. Yes it was juvenile but I still laughed my ass off.
Finally we get to fight day. Lester fares slightly better on this go round but ultimately it wasn't enough. Lester couldn't get off. Wilks was the aggressor the majority of the time and showed much better technical striking skills.
Lester would've been smart to listen to his coaches and use his jab to set up his power punches but instead he loaded up which let Wilks pick him apart. Ultimately the knees did in Lester again. He was exhausted in the third round and once Wilks started landing the knees the fight was over.
Wilks moves on to face Damarques Johnson for the welterweight crown. These two have a nice little rivalry going and I'm pretty excited to see them meet in the cage. It's a pretty one sided rivalry since Wilks had nothing to say about Johnson but it's good to have a little spice in the finale since the lightweight final is between two Brits.
After the fight Lester was pretty down but Henderson seemed proud of (almost) all of his fighters (ahem, Jason Pierce, ahem). Bisping was even more proud considering there were low expectations for his crew.
There was some buzz ginned up between Henderson and Bisping for their fight at UFC 100. Henderson straight up called Bisping a d-bag and Bisping feels disrespected because he thinks Henderson doesn't take him seriously. I really don't think these guys dislike each other all that much. I think it's just talk due to the nature of the show and the fact that they're fighting each other.
All in all I thought this season was a success. It didn't carry with it any of the garbage from last season where things at the house got out of control. There was some personal drama, some good fights, and some good laughs to boot.
Obviously I'm pretty disappointed the US didn't produce a better result but that's the breaks. The country v. country format worked for me but I don't want to see it back too soon. I'm happy the next season will focus on one weight class with no elimination fights - kicking it old school!
As always I end with my quote of the week. This week Damarques has the final honors as he tries to describe the level of hatred he carries for his opponent in the finale, James Wilks: “That dude, I don’t know what it is, his mannerisms, his f'ing face just tugs on my life cord and makes me want to hurt somebody.” Indeed Mr. Johnson... indeed.
Well that's it for this season everyone. I hope you enjoy the finale Saturday and if you want to read my preview or recap of the events please check them out at InsideFights along with my weekly news recap No News Barred every Weds. Also, make sure you keep it locked for my monthly fighter rankings coming soon. Until next season,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
John Shubert is staff writer for InsideFights
The episode starts off with Dan Henderson going over to the house for one last meal with the boys. Everything goes off without a hitch. Though there is some light hearted ribbing of Dan's fairly mockable cauliflower ears - not as subtle as BJ Penn but not alien looking like James Thompson.
We move on to the training sessions where Henderson implores Frank Lester to not brawl with James Wilks and to throw straighter punches. Frank looks much more relaxed than their last time fighting each other.
In fact it's so noticeable that the U.K. team warns Wilks not to underestimate Lester. They all tell Wilks he has an even better puncher's chance than before due to his new found state of mind.
We even see Wilks and Lester hanging out cutting weight and Lester got all philosophical on Wilks. The producers also decided to show a nice moment between the two where they signed each other's jerseys and talked about Lester's daughter. I found this to be odd but it was still nice to see that just because you fight each other doesn't mean you have to hate the other guy.
After that we move on to the U.K. team's final dinner where they brought their coaches over. There was a particularly great moment where Wilks tricks Bisping into trying to slap a non existent coin off his forehead in what was a pretty funny party trick.
After that the dinner degenerated into a food fight and eventually Andre Winner getting thrown in the pool with a bag of flour dumped on his face. Yes it was juvenile but I still laughed my ass off.
Finally we get to fight day. Lester fares slightly better on this go round but ultimately it wasn't enough. Lester couldn't get off. Wilks was the aggressor the majority of the time and showed much better technical striking skills.
Lester would've been smart to listen to his coaches and use his jab to set up his power punches but instead he loaded up which let Wilks pick him apart. Ultimately the knees did in Lester again. He was exhausted in the third round and once Wilks started landing the knees the fight was over.
Wilks moves on to face Damarques Johnson for the welterweight crown. These two have a nice little rivalry going and I'm pretty excited to see them meet in the cage. It's a pretty one sided rivalry since Wilks had nothing to say about Johnson but it's good to have a little spice in the finale since the lightweight final is between two Brits.
After the fight Lester was pretty down but Henderson seemed proud of (almost) all of his fighters (ahem, Jason Pierce, ahem). Bisping was even more proud considering there were low expectations for his crew.
There was some buzz ginned up between Henderson and Bisping for their fight at UFC 100. Henderson straight up called Bisping a d-bag and Bisping feels disrespected because he thinks Henderson doesn't take him seriously. I really don't think these guys dislike each other all that much. I think it's just talk due to the nature of the show and the fact that they're fighting each other.
All in all I thought this season was a success. It didn't carry with it any of the garbage from last season where things at the house got out of control. There was some personal drama, some good fights, and some good laughs to boot.
Obviously I'm pretty disappointed the US didn't produce a better result but that's the breaks. The country v. country format worked for me but I don't want to see it back too soon. I'm happy the next season will focus on one weight class with no elimination fights - kicking it old school!
As always I end with my quote of the week. This week Damarques has the final honors as he tries to describe the level of hatred he carries for his opponent in the finale, James Wilks: “That dude, I don’t know what it is, his mannerisms, his f'ing face just tugs on my life cord and makes me want to hurt somebody.” Indeed Mr. Johnson... indeed.
Well that's it for this season everyone. I hope you enjoy the finale Saturday and if you want to read my preview or recap of the events please check them out at InsideFights along with my weekly news recap No News Barred every Weds. Also, make sure you keep it locked for my monthly fighter rankings coming soon. Until next season,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
John Shubert is staff writer for InsideFights
Monday, June 15, 2009
UFC 99 Recap
Well I have to say this card wasn’t what I expected. I was one of a minority of people who thought this card was worthy of a PPV. However, with hindsight being 20/20, I don’t believe it lived up to expectations.
Don’t get me wrong, there were some exciting fights and a couple good finishes, but overall it wasn’t what I expected. I really expected some more exciting finishes but I think the real letdown here was Joe Silva’s match making. Styles make fights and this time I think Silva goofed on a couple match ups where the fighter’s styles basically neutralized each other.
Hats off to the guys who tried to keep the fights exciting but I think in a couple instances some fighters got dragged into a boring fight even if it wasn’t in their nature. Let’s do a brief recap of the undercard (which wasn’t shown due to having six fights on the main card) and then we’ll review the main card fights:
John Hathaway v. John Story: Hathaway wins by unanimous decision. He is now 2-0 in the UFC and hopefully we’ll get to see him start to fight some guys with UFC experience. I picked this fight right on the nose.
Denis Stojnic v. Stefan Struve: Struve wins by rear naked choke in the second round. I got the pick right but not the prediction. I was right Struve would get the fight to the ground but I gave Stojnic’s ground game too much credit. I doubt we’ll be seeing Stojnic back in the UFC.
Paul Kelly v. Rolando Delgado: Kelly gets the win by unanimous decision. I got the pick right but not the prediction. I didn’t give Rolando enough credit for his toughness to last the whole fight with Kelly.
Paul Taylor v. Peter Sobotta: Taylor picks up the win by unanimous decision. I got the pick right but not the prediction. Again, I didn’t give the loser enough credit for how tough he was to last the whole fight. It was a sad showing in front of the home country fans for one of only two German fighters on the card.
Denis Siver v. Dale Hartt: Siver picks up the win by rear naked choke in the first round. I picked this one right on the button. After a rough start to his UFC career Siver has thrown together a couple wins and this was a big one in front of his countrymen. Hartt has been completely unimpressive in his UFC career and I wouldn’t expect to see him back.
Terry Etim v. Justin Buchholz: Etim picks up the win by d’arce choke in the second round. I got the pick right but not the prediction. I totally underestimated Etim’s ground game on this one thinking Buchholz would neutralize it being a submission fighter himself. It’s back to the drawing board for Buchholz but Etim has thrown together a nice little win streak after a brief rough patch.
Marcus Davis v. Dan Hardy: This was one of the fights that did not live up the hype. Davis’ aggression played against him often looking to punish Hardy instead of making the smart decision. It often backfired on Davis causing him to be the one who took most of the punishment.
The fighters didn’t spend nearly as much time on their feet as I thought they would. Davis tried repeatedly to get the fight to mat, which was a smart tactical decision, but it just didn’t work out the way he wanted. He was very aggressive off his back but Hardy just shrugged him off and delivered some good ground and pound.
Neither fighter was ever in any serious danger but Hardy delivered the better damage and had better position most of the fight. He won a hard fought split decision which I agreed with. I got the prediction right but I picked the wrong fighter.
Davis appeared beside himself after the loss. I’m not sure if it was due to the decision or if it was just losing to Hardy. In either case he showed very little class which was a surprise coming from Davis.
This really skyrockets Hardy up the standings in the welterweight division. I would love to see him fight someone like Martin Kampmann next.
Unfortunately for Davis this is a costly set back for him since he is already 35. I’d like to see him take on someone like Brock Larson so he can get right back in the mix at 170.
Spencer Fisher v. Caol Uno: In another fight that really didn’t live up to my expectations, this was a perfect example of how styles not only make fights but can kill them. Uno knows just enough on the feet to negate Fisher’s striking and Fisher knows just enough on the ground to negate Uno’s grappling. Hence these two wound up in a stale mate for the majority of the fight.
Joe Rogan tried to play it off like it was a fascinating technical battle but really it wasn’t. Fisher did enough on his feet to earn the win by unanimous decision. I got this pick right but not the prediction.
Caol Uno was a good test for Fisher but I’d like to see him take a step up like a Sean Sherk. For Uno this was not the reintroduction he wanted. If he can’t beat Spencer Fisher there’s no reason to stay in the UFC. I don’t know how long his contract is but if I was him I’d go back to Japan where he’s enjoyed much more success.
Mike Swick v. Ben Saunders: This fight had a great finish but was underwhelming overall. Saunders, in a very unusual move, pulled Swick into his guard almost immediately. This sparked some lively smack talk which the audience was privy to since they were right next to the announce table.
Saunders continually tried to keep Swick close to him either in the clinch or on the ground. Swick proved why, blasting Saunders away in the second round for the TKO victory. I got the pick right but was one round too late on the prediction.
Saunders was just over matched on his feet and apparently even he knew it. Swick was simply too fast and too strong even with Saunders’ length and size.
If you ask me Swick is probably one win away from a title shot and I’d love to see him face the winner of the Fitch v. Thiago fight or the loser of the St. Pierre v. Alves fight for that opportunity. For Saunders it’s back to the drawing board but I think this is one of those losses that will ultimately wind up being a positive experience for him in the long run.
Mirko Cro Cop v. Mustapha Al-turk: This fight went exactly as everyone predicted with Cro Cop getting the TKO victory in the first round. I picked this one right on the nose.
It was a bitter sweet end as Cro Cop hunted him down the entire round but couldn’t put him away until Al-turk got caught by an unintentional eye poke which allowed Cro Cop to get on top of him and finish the fight. I’m not sure what’s next for Cro Cop since he only had a one fight deal but hopefully we’ll see him back in the UFC soon. For Al-turk another loss almost guarantees his exit from the UFC.
Cain Velasquez v. Cheick Kongo: This fight was the craziest fight of the night by far. Velasquez got dropped by two brutal punches early in the first round but he was able to get the takedown on Kongo. He rode Kongo the entire round landing some good ground and pound and almost finishing him with a rear naked choke.
It was like deja vu in the second round as Velasquez got hurt again early by a Kongo punch but again was able to get the takedown. He continued to ride Kongo the entire round and deliver some more good ground and pound.
Both fighters were visibly tired by the third round which lead to a more competitive round. Velasquez didn’t even bother trying to stand and immediately went for the takedown. Kongo did a better job stuffing his shots and getting back to his feet when on the mat but ultimately he was overmatched in the grappling department.
Velasquez delivered more ground and pound to earn himself a unanimous decision victory. I got the pick right on the button again. This fight opened up big questions about both fighters though.
You have to question Velasquez’ striking now. Yes he’s powerful but a great technical striker like Kongo could pick him apart. Fortunately at the top of the heap at heavyweight there aren’t any guys like Kongo. However, he could be in serious trouble against a guy who could outwrestle him and may be a better striker i.e. Couture, Lesnar, and Carwin.
For Kongo it’s the same old question. Can he ever get his grappling good enough to not get dumped head first on the mat or be good enough to pose a threat to someone once he is on his back? The answer is looking like no which will forever keep him from the top of the heap at heavyweight. Because everyone at the top of the heap is a great grappler whether it be wrestling or jiu-jitsu.
Kongo is going to have to start over but for Velasquez this opens up a world of opportunity for him. I’d like to see him take on the loser of the Couture v. Nogueira match as the UFC is grooming him slower than Carwin.
Rich Franklin v. Wanderlei Silva: This will probably win fight of the night by default but it probably couldn’t touch some other fights of the night. It was also very disappointing as I think everyone expected a KO in this fight. But Both of these guys really went at it for all three rounds and that’s all you can really ask for.
The first round was mostly controlled by Franklin who had the better technical striking and also was able to get some top position on Silva. The second round was totally different as Silva finally found some room to work inside and caught Franklin a couple times and had him rocked. Unfortunately he couldn’t put him away.
In the third round Franklin was the more effective striker landing the better blows. Silva started going for broke but Franklin wisely took him down securing the round for him. Franklin picks up the unanimous decision victory. I got the pick right but not the prediction.
This was a big win for Franklin who needed a win like this to prove that he can hang at 205. For Silva it’s another disappointing loss but at least this time he put on a real show for the fans and he wasn’t KO’d either. What this means for him at 185 I don’t know.
I know Dana White and co. were trying to hype a fight between him and Anderson Silva had he beaten Franklin but now that’s not in the cards. It will be interesting to see who Silva’s first opponent is at 185 as that will be very telling of where the UFC thinks Silva is at in his career.
All in all this was an underwhelming show with only a few bright spots. One of them being my absolutely crazy record tonight as I went an absolutely unconscious 11-1 plus four bonus points for getting predictions right. If only I could do this every time out!
Alright that’s it for now folks. Stay tuned for my Ultimate Fighter Nine Finale preview and as always No News Barred every Weds. on InsideFights. Until then,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Don’t get me wrong, there were some exciting fights and a couple good finishes, but overall it wasn’t what I expected. I really expected some more exciting finishes but I think the real letdown here was Joe Silva’s match making. Styles make fights and this time I think Silva goofed on a couple match ups where the fighter’s styles basically neutralized each other.
Hats off to the guys who tried to keep the fights exciting but I think in a couple instances some fighters got dragged into a boring fight even if it wasn’t in their nature. Let’s do a brief recap of the undercard (which wasn’t shown due to having six fights on the main card) and then we’ll review the main card fights:
John Hathaway v. John Story: Hathaway wins by unanimous decision. He is now 2-0 in the UFC and hopefully we’ll get to see him start to fight some guys with UFC experience. I picked this fight right on the nose.
Denis Stojnic v. Stefan Struve: Struve wins by rear naked choke in the second round. I got the pick right but not the prediction. I was right Struve would get the fight to the ground but I gave Stojnic’s ground game too much credit. I doubt we’ll be seeing Stojnic back in the UFC.
Paul Kelly v. Rolando Delgado: Kelly gets the win by unanimous decision. I got the pick right but not the prediction. I didn’t give Rolando enough credit for his toughness to last the whole fight with Kelly.
Paul Taylor v. Peter Sobotta: Taylor picks up the win by unanimous decision. I got the pick right but not the prediction. Again, I didn’t give the loser enough credit for how tough he was to last the whole fight. It was a sad showing in front of the home country fans for one of only two German fighters on the card.
Denis Siver v. Dale Hartt: Siver picks up the win by rear naked choke in the first round. I picked this one right on the button. After a rough start to his UFC career Siver has thrown together a couple wins and this was a big one in front of his countrymen. Hartt has been completely unimpressive in his UFC career and I wouldn’t expect to see him back.
Terry Etim v. Justin Buchholz: Etim picks up the win by d’arce choke in the second round. I got the pick right but not the prediction. I totally underestimated Etim’s ground game on this one thinking Buchholz would neutralize it being a submission fighter himself. It’s back to the drawing board for Buchholz but Etim has thrown together a nice little win streak after a brief rough patch.
Marcus Davis v. Dan Hardy: This was one of the fights that did not live up the hype. Davis’ aggression played against him often looking to punish Hardy instead of making the smart decision. It often backfired on Davis causing him to be the one who took most of the punishment.
The fighters didn’t spend nearly as much time on their feet as I thought they would. Davis tried repeatedly to get the fight to mat, which was a smart tactical decision, but it just didn’t work out the way he wanted. He was very aggressive off his back but Hardy just shrugged him off and delivered some good ground and pound.
Neither fighter was ever in any serious danger but Hardy delivered the better damage and had better position most of the fight. He won a hard fought split decision which I agreed with. I got the prediction right but I picked the wrong fighter.
Davis appeared beside himself after the loss. I’m not sure if it was due to the decision or if it was just losing to Hardy. In either case he showed very little class which was a surprise coming from Davis.
This really skyrockets Hardy up the standings in the welterweight division. I would love to see him fight someone like Martin Kampmann next.
Unfortunately for Davis this is a costly set back for him since he is already 35. I’d like to see him take on someone like Brock Larson so he can get right back in the mix at 170.
Spencer Fisher v. Caol Uno: In another fight that really didn’t live up to my expectations, this was a perfect example of how styles not only make fights but can kill them. Uno knows just enough on the feet to negate Fisher’s striking and Fisher knows just enough on the ground to negate Uno’s grappling. Hence these two wound up in a stale mate for the majority of the fight.
Joe Rogan tried to play it off like it was a fascinating technical battle but really it wasn’t. Fisher did enough on his feet to earn the win by unanimous decision. I got this pick right but not the prediction.
Caol Uno was a good test for Fisher but I’d like to see him take a step up like a Sean Sherk. For Uno this was not the reintroduction he wanted. If he can’t beat Spencer Fisher there’s no reason to stay in the UFC. I don’t know how long his contract is but if I was him I’d go back to Japan where he’s enjoyed much more success.
Mike Swick v. Ben Saunders: This fight had a great finish but was underwhelming overall. Saunders, in a very unusual move, pulled Swick into his guard almost immediately. This sparked some lively smack talk which the audience was privy to since they were right next to the announce table.
Saunders continually tried to keep Swick close to him either in the clinch or on the ground. Swick proved why, blasting Saunders away in the second round for the TKO victory. I got the pick right but was one round too late on the prediction.
Saunders was just over matched on his feet and apparently even he knew it. Swick was simply too fast and too strong even with Saunders’ length and size.
If you ask me Swick is probably one win away from a title shot and I’d love to see him face the winner of the Fitch v. Thiago fight or the loser of the St. Pierre v. Alves fight for that opportunity. For Saunders it’s back to the drawing board but I think this is one of those losses that will ultimately wind up being a positive experience for him in the long run.
Mirko Cro Cop v. Mustapha Al-turk: This fight went exactly as everyone predicted with Cro Cop getting the TKO victory in the first round. I picked this one right on the nose.
It was a bitter sweet end as Cro Cop hunted him down the entire round but couldn’t put him away until Al-turk got caught by an unintentional eye poke which allowed Cro Cop to get on top of him and finish the fight. I’m not sure what’s next for Cro Cop since he only had a one fight deal but hopefully we’ll see him back in the UFC soon. For Al-turk another loss almost guarantees his exit from the UFC.
Cain Velasquez v. Cheick Kongo: This fight was the craziest fight of the night by far. Velasquez got dropped by two brutal punches early in the first round but he was able to get the takedown on Kongo. He rode Kongo the entire round landing some good ground and pound and almost finishing him with a rear naked choke.
It was like deja vu in the second round as Velasquez got hurt again early by a Kongo punch but again was able to get the takedown. He continued to ride Kongo the entire round and deliver some more good ground and pound.
Both fighters were visibly tired by the third round which lead to a more competitive round. Velasquez didn’t even bother trying to stand and immediately went for the takedown. Kongo did a better job stuffing his shots and getting back to his feet when on the mat but ultimately he was overmatched in the grappling department.
Velasquez delivered more ground and pound to earn himself a unanimous decision victory. I got the pick right on the button again. This fight opened up big questions about both fighters though.
You have to question Velasquez’ striking now. Yes he’s powerful but a great technical striker like Kongo could pick him apart. Fortunately at the top of the heap at heavyweight there aren’t any guys like Kongo. However, he could be in serious trouble against a guy who could outwrestle him and may be a better striker i.e. Couture, Lesnar, and Carwin.
For Kongo it’s the same old question. Can he ever get his grappling good enough to not get dumped head first on the mat or be good enough to pose a threat to someone once he is on his back? The answer is looking like no which will forever keep him from the top of the heap at heavyweight. Because everyone at the top of the heap is a great grappler whether it be wrestling or jiu-jitsu.
Kongo is going to have to start over but for Velasquez this opens up a world of opportunity for him. I’d like to see him take on the loser of the Couture v. Nogueira match as the UFC is grooming him slower than Carwin.
Rich Franklin v. Wanderlei Silva: This will probably win fight of the night by default but it probably couldn’t touch some other fights of the night. It was also very disappointing as I think everyone expected a KO in this fight. But Both of these guys really went at it for all three rounds and that’s all you can really ask for.
The first round was mostly controlled by Franklin who had the better technical striking and also was able to get some top position on Silva. The second round was totally different as Silva finally found some room to work inside and caught Franklin a couple times and had him rocked. Unfortunately he couldn’t put him away.
In the third round Franklin was the more effective striker landing the better blows. Silva started going for broke but Franklin wisely took him down securing the round for him. Franklin picks up the unanimous decision victory. I got the pick right but not the prediction.
This was a big win for Franklin who needed a win like this to prove that he can hang at 205. For Silva it’s another disappointing loss but at least this time he put on a real show for the fans and he wasn’t KO’d either. What this means for him at 185 I don’t know.
I know Dana White and co. were trying to hype a fight between him and Anderson Silva had he beaten Franklin but now that’s not in the cards. It will be interesting to see who Silva’s first opponent is at 185 as that will be very telling of where the UFC thinks Silva is at in his career.
All in all this was an underwhelming show with only a few bright spots. One of them being my absolutely crazy record tonight as I went an absolutely unconscious 11-1 plus four bonus points for getting predictions right. If only I could do this every time out!
Alright that’s it for now folks. Stay tuned for my Ultimate Fighter Nine Finale preview and as always No News Barred every Weds. on InsideFights. Until then,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Thursday, June 11, 2009
The Ultimate Fighter Nine: Episode Eleven Review
This week featured the two semi final bouts in the lightweight tournament. I always love when we get two fights in one episode because it cuts out almost any time for the drama in the house and focuses solely on the fights and only the most pertinent information from outside the cage.
The first fight is between Cameron Dollar and Andrew Winner. It is revealed in training that Dollar has some very bruised ribs but nothing that should keep him from competing. We get a glimpse at Winner's training but there isn't any news there.
However, the one good bit back at the house this episode was the piece on how Winner sucks his thumb. Apparently this has been going on all season without the audience hearing a word about it until now.
He claims that he barely ever does it anymore and that they haven't caught him on camera because he only does it in order to get to sleep. However, big brother is always watching and at the end of the piece we are given a blatant thumb sucking shot as he relaxed on the couches. Sorry Andre, you won't be able to live this one down.
From there we move into the fight where things get a little crazy on the feet which is not the strategy Henderson wants Dollar to implement. He begs him to get the fight to the mat but is having a lot of trouble against the more explosive and agile Winner.
The fight finally gets to the mat but Winner quickly sweeps Dollar and winds up in mount. From there he quickly transitions into a triangle choke and easily submits Dollar in the first round.
This was a poor showing by Dollar who was one of the surprise semi-finalists. Dollar's inexperience showed as he didn't listen to his corner at all and just went pedal to the metal without any real strategy. Now the US and UK each have a member in the finale.
Up next is the fight between Ross Pearson and Jason Dent. Both guys are training hard for this fight and seem to be taking the opportunity very seriously. Dent was not very impressive in his last win and vows to put on a better performance this time around.
All three rounds looked very similar. Pearson kept the pressure on Dent at all times never giving him any time to breath. He was consistently the more aggressive fighter even if he never had the accuracy or power to put Dent away.
Dent showed some good flashes of crisp striking but was too technical for his own good. He probably needed to stay in the pocket and let it all hang out to try for the (T)KO because he was never going to win the fight just picking and choosing his spots to counter attack like he did. However, Dana White seemed pretty impressed with his performance and Dent more than likely earned an undercard spot at the TUF 9 finale.
Pearson went on to win a unanimous decision making the lightweight final an all English affair and putting the UK team up 2-1 for the finale. While Henderson didn't comment on his feelings about the lightweight final you know it has to burn him up not seeing one of his guys fight for the title.
This week's quote of the week (which fortunately is making a comeback after a shabby show last week) goes to Dollar talking about his upcoming fight with Winner:
"I can't lose to a guy that sucks his thumb!"
Ouch... he must feel like he just lost to Linus from Peanuts, blankie and all. Cameron had his tongue firmly in cheek on that quip but I bet it still stung a little to know you just lost to a guy that needs the same safety mechanism to get to sleep as toddlers.
Next week is the last show before the finale as Frank Lester takes on James "The Dentist" Wilks in a rematch from the quarter finals. That's not his real nickname but after their last fight it should be. Will we see Lester get some revenge and make it an all US final at welterweight evening up the score between the two countries? Or will Wilks rearrange Lester's grill one more time on his way to giving the UK a 3-1 edge in the finale?
Until next time,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
The first fight is between Cameron Dollar and Andrew Winner. It is revealed in training that Dollar has some very bruised ribs but nothing that should keep him from competing. We get a glimpse at Winner's training but there isn't any news there.
However, the one good bit back at the house this episode was the piece on how Winner sucks his thumb. Apparently this has been going on all season without the audience hearing a word about it until now.
He claims that he barely ever does it anymore and that they haven't caught him on camera because he only does it in order to get to sleep. However, big brother is always watching and at the end of the piece we are given a blatant thumb sucking shot as he relaxed on the couches. Sorry Andre, you won't be able to live this one down.
From there we move into the fight where things get a little crazy on the feet which is not the strategy Henderson wants Dollar to implement. He begs him to get the fight to the mat but is having a lot of trouble against the more explosive and agile Winner.
The fight finally gets to the mat but Winner quickly sweeps Dollar and winds up in mount. From there he quickly transitions into a triangle choke and easily submits Dollar in the first round.
This was a poor showing by Dollar who was one of the surprise semi-finalists. Dollar's inexperience showed as he didn't listen to his corner at all and just went pedal to the metal without any real strategy. Now the US and UK each have a member in the finale.
Up next is the fight between Ross Pearson and Jason Dent. Both guys are training hard for this fight and seem to be taking the opportunity very seriously. Dent was not very impressive in his last win and vows to put on a better performance this time around.
All three rounds looked very similar. Pearson kept the pressure on Dent at all times never giving him any time to breath. He was consistently the more aggressive fighter even if he never had the accuracy or power to put Dent away.
Dent showed some good flashes of crisp striking but was too technical for his own good. He probably needed to stay in the pocket and let it all hang out to try for the (T)KO because he was never going to win the fight just picking and choosing his spots to counter attack like he did. However, Dana White seemed pretty impressed with his performance and Dent more than likely earned an undercard spot at the TUF 9 finale.
Pearson went on to win a unanimous decision making the lightweight final an all English affair and putting the UK team up 2-1 for the finale. While Henderson didn't comment on his feelings about the lightweight final you know it has to burn him up not seeing one of his guys fight for the title.
This week's quote of the week (which fortunately is making a comeback after a shabby show last week) goes to Dollar talking about his upcoming fight with Winner:
"I can't lose to a guy that sucks his thumb!"
Ouch... he must feel like he just lost to Linus from Peanuts, blankie and all. Cameron had his tongue firmly in cheek on that quip but I bet it still stung a little to know you just lost to a guy that needs the same safety mechanism to get to sleep as toddlers.
Next week is the last show before the finale as Frank Lester takes on James "The Dentist" Wilks in a rematch from the quarter finals. That's not his real nickname but after their last fight it should be. Will we see Lester get some revenge and make it an all US final at welterweight evening up the score between the two countries? Or will Wilks rearrange Lester's grill one more time on his way to giving the UK a 3-1 edge in the finale?
Until next time,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
UFC 99 Preview
This Saturday the UFC makes its first trip to Germany as UFC 99 emanates live from the Lanxess Arena in Cologne. There has been a lot of controversy over there about the merits of the sport and the local government has gone so far as to prohibit minors from coming to the show. Fortunately this controversy has done little to mar my excitement across the pond about some potentially great fights.
Taking a cue from Strikeforce that catch weight bouts are not the end of the world the UFC has let two of the world’s most feared strikers meet at a catch weight of 195 lbs as one moves up to light heavyweight and the other moves down to middleweight. Rich Franklin, former UFC middleweight champion, takes on Wanderlei Silva respectively, former Pride light heavyweight champion, in a fight that should produce fireworks.
Franklin is moving up to light heavyweight permanently but is taking a bit of a detour to take on a formidable opponent in Silva who is working his way down to middleweight. These two vaunted strikers should put on quite a clinic and the chances of this making it to a decision are slim.
Also on the card is much hyped heavyweight Cain Velasquez taking on his first real test in the UFC against fearsome kick boxer Cheick Kongo. Welterweight contender Mike Swick takes on up and comer Ben Saunders. In a bad blood match Marcus Davis takes on the next British sensation Dan Hardy. And UFC 99 also marks the return of Caol Uno and Mirko Cro Cop to the UFC.
All that and we haven’t even made it to the undercard! Let’s start to break this bad boy down:
John Hathaway v. Rick Story: Hathaway is 10-0, 1-0 in the UFC, with eight wins by stoppage. He is a striker. Story is 7-2, making his UFC debut, with four wins by stoppage. He is a striker and wrestler.
I think Hathaway has the advantage here in terms of striking and in UFC experience. While Story could be the better wrestler I think Hathaway will pick Story apart and avoid the ground game. I like Hathaway to stay undefeated with a win by decision.
Denis Stojnic v. Stefan Struve: Stojnic is 5-2, 0-1 in the UFC, with two wins by KO. He is a striker with a background in karate and sambo. Struve 16-3, 0-1 in the UFC, with 15 wins by stoppage. He is a submission fighter with some striking.
This is a cutting the fat fight as both guys are 0-1 in the UFC and most likely the loser of this fight will get cut. This is a great match up of striker v. grappler. I usually go for the grappler in this situation and I’m not veering away from that here. I’m picking Struve to get the fight to the ground where he can control it and earn the decision victory.
Paul Kelly v. Rolando Delgado: Kelly is 9-1, 2-1 in the UFC, with seven wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission ability. Delgado is 6-3-1, 1-0 in the UFC, with five wins by stoppage. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter.
Again this is a striker v. grappler match up. Kelly has more experience against better competition and Kelly is coming down from welterweight so he should have the power advantage. Normally I would pick the grappler but I like Kelly’s chances in this fight. I’m picking Kelly’s heavy hands to get him the win by TKO in the second round.
Paul Taylor v. Peter Sobotta: Taylor is 9-4-1, 2-3 in the UFC, with seven wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission ability. Sobotta is 8-1, making his UFC debut, with all eight wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission skills.
This should be a fairly even match up however I think there is a lot of pressure on Sobotta being at home in Germany and making his UFC debut. With that in mind I’ll give Taylor the slight edge and I’ll pick him to win by TKO in the second round.
Denis Siver v. Dale Hartt: Siver is 13-6, 2-3 in the UFC, with nine wins by stoppage. He is a submission fighter with some striking. Hartt is 6-1, 1-1 in the UFC, with all six wins by stoppage. He is a striker.
Siver would be smart to get this fight to the mat quickly. While Hartt’s record says he’s 1-1 in the UFC that win came via Corey Hill’s gruesome injury so Hartt hasn’t had any success in the UFC really. I think Siver can do enough on his feet to get the fight to the ground where he should have a decisive advantage.
I’m picking Siver to win by submission in the first round.
Terry Etim v. Justin Buchholz: Etim is 12-2, 3-2 in the UFC, with 11 wins by stoppage. He is a submission fighter with solid muay thai. Buchholz is 7-2, 1-1 in the UFC, with all seven wins by stoppage. He is a submission fighter with solid striking.
This should be a fairly even match up. Both these guys are submission fighters at heart but I think that will cancel each other out and it will come down to who is the better striker. In my opinion Etim should have the advantage. Due to that I’ll pick Etim to get the TKO win in the first round.
Mostapha Al-turk v. Mirko Cro Cop: Al-turk is 6-4, 0-1 in the UFC, with all six wins by stoppage. He is a striker. Cro Cop is 24-6-2, 1-2 in the UFC, with 21 wins by stoppage. He is a kickboxer.
This is a match tailor made for Cro Cop’s return. Al-turk is simply a striker and is definitely not on the level of a Gonzaga or Kongo who beat Cro Cop in his last run. I don’t see Cro Cop having much trouble here. I’ll pick Cro Cop by TKO in the first round.
Spencer Fisher v. Caol Uno: Fisher is 22-4, 7-3 in the UFC, with 19 wins by stoppage. He has good striking and submissions. Uno is 27-11-4, 3-3-1 in the UFC, with 15 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with good wrestling and submissions.
Uno makes his first appearance in the UFC in six years. Uno has been working his way back up the lightweight ladder and is not taking any cupcakes in his return to the UFC. Fisher has won two fights in a row and is always dangerous on the feet and the ground.
The key here is can Uno get the fight to the ground or can Fisher keep it on the feet. Both are solid wrestlers so it will come down to who can impose his will. I think Fisher is good enough on the ground to survive with Uno but I don’t think Uno’s striking can compare with Fisher’s.
I think Fisher has the decided advantage in one area and will use it to his advantage. I’m going to pick Fisher to win by TKO in the second round.
Marcus Davis v. Dan Hardy: Davis is 16-4, 8-2 in the UFC, with 12 wins by stoppage. He is a boxer with good jiu-jitsu. Hardy is 21-6, 2-0 in the UFC, with 15 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with a background in muay thai, tae kwon do, and has some jiu-jitsu skills.
If Davis was smart he would get this fight to the mat but I know he loves to strike and wants to beat Hardy at his own game especially after all the smack talk between the two. I do think Davis has the advantage on the feet but obviously it’s a dangerous game playing right into Hardy’s hands.
I’m still going to pick Davis to win by decision. Hardy is a tough kid so I don’t see him getting KO’d. This should be a fantastic war and possible fight of the night.
Mike Swick v. Ben Saunders: Swick is 13-2, 8-1 in the UFC, with seven wins by stoppage. He is a kickboxer with some submission skills. Saunders is 7-0-2, 3-0 in the UFC, with six wins by stoppage. He is a striker with a kickboxing and karate background along with some submission skills.
Saunders hasn’t faced anyone at the level of Swick yet and it will be interesting to see how he compares to a true contender. I think Saunders would be best served taking the fight to the mat but I’m not sure he could get it there even if he wanted to.
I think Swick will get the win here easily living up to his nickname “Quick.” I’m picking Swick by KO in the first round. I would love to see Swick take on either Jon Fitch or Martin Kampmann for a shot at the title after Thiago Alves.
Cheick Kongo v. Cain Velasquez: Kongo is 19-4-1, 7-2 in the UFC, with eight wins by KO. He is a muay thai fighter. Velasquez is 5-0, 3-0 in the UFC, with all five wins by KO. He is a wrestler with strong hands.
This will be Velasquez’ first real test in the UFC. Kongo will be the best striker Velasquez has seen and Velasquez has to be careful on his feet and in the takedown. However, Kongo is not a top level grappler as was proven against Heath Herring and Carmello Marerro who can’t hold a torch to Velasquez’ wrestling.
Velasquez should be able to hang in with Kongo on the feet until he can take him down and rough him up. Kongo is a tough guy so I don’t see Velasquez stopping him but he should do enough to rack up points. I’m picking Velasquez to win by decision. I’d like to see him go to the next level against a Randy Couture or Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira after this fight with Shane Carwin taking on whoever doesn’t get Velasquez.
Rich Franklin v. Wanderlei Silva: Franklin is 24-4, 11-3 in the UFC, with 22 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submissions. Silva is 32-9-1, 1-2 in the UFC, with 26 wins by stoppage. He is muay thai fighter with jiu-jitsu skills.
We all know that this will be a toe to toe war. No one is looking to duck the other guy’s punches. Someone is getting knocked out here the question is who?
Silva’s striking is more diverse but he also has the weaker chin. Franklin is tougher but for whatever reason is really susceptible to the muay thai clinch. Both guys should be about the same size as Silva is moving down and Franklin was always a huge middleweight so the power factor here should be negligible.
If Franklin can stay outside where he has the reach advantage he should be able to pick his spots and land the KO after he’s worn down Silva a bit. If Silva can get inside in the clinch and deliver some punishing knees and punches he could end this fight quickly.
I hate to say it because Silva may be my favorite fighter of all time but I think he’s been in too many wars and his body is breaking down. His chin appears softer and he doesn’t have the same burst that he used to. Franklin has really only been beaten by the best of the best in Anderson Silva, Dan Henderson, and Lyoto Machida. Franklin has also done a better job of staying out of those wars that take such a tremendous toll on the body.
I think Franklin will stay outside and use his length to keep Silva at bay. He will wear Silva down and eventually finish him late in the fight. I’m picking Franklin to win by TKO in the third round.
Silva is in no danger of losing his UFC contract even with his third loss because he’s such a big draw. However, he should really ask himself if it’s worth fighting anymore and maybe it’s time to move on to training. For Franklin this win doesn’t do much for his standing at light heavyweight but it puts him back at the top of people’s minds in terms of popularity.
My pick for submission of the night goes to Denis Siver. My pick for KO of the night goes to Mike Swick. And my pick for fight of the night goes to Marcus Davis v. Dan Hardy.
This should be a really great night of fights as the UFC treats us to an unusually large card of 12 fights including an unheard of six on the main card. I can’t wait to see how everything shakes out!
Stay tuned for No News Barred every Weds. on InsideFights. Until next time,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Taking a cue from Strikeforce that catch weight bouts are not the end of the world the UFC has let two of the world’s most feared strikers meet at a catch weight of 195 lbs as one moves up to light heavyweight and the other moves down to middleweight. Rich Franklin, former UFC middleweight champion, takes on Wanderlei Silva respectively, former Pride light heavyweight champion, in a fight that should produce fireworks.
Franklin is moving up to light heavyweight permanently but is taking a bit of a detour to take on a formidable opponent in Silva who is working his way down to middleweight. These two vaunted strikers should put on quite a clinic and the chances of this making it to a decision are slim.
Also on the card is much hyped heavyweight Cain Velasquez taking on his first real test in the UFC against fearsome kick boxer Cheick Kongo. Welterweight contender Mike Swick takes on up and comer Ben Saunders. In a bad blood match Marcus Davis takes on the next British sensation Dan Hardy. And UFC 99 also marks the return of Caol Uno and Mirko Cro Cop to the UFC.
All that and we haven’t even made it to the undercard! Let’s start to break this bad boy down:
John Hathaway v. Rick Story: Hathaway is 10-0, 1-0 in the UFC, with eight wins by stoppage. He is a striker. Story is 7-2, making his UFC debut, with four wins by stoppage. He is a striker and wrestler.
I think Hathaway has the advantage here in terms of striking and in UFC experience. While Story could be the better wrestler I think Hathaway will pick Story apart and avoid the ground game. I like Hathaway to stay undefeated with a win by decision.
Denis Stojnic v. Stefan Struve: Stojnic is 5-2, 0-1 in the UFC, with two wins by KO. He is a striker with a background in karate and sambo. Struve 16-3, 0-1 in the UFC, with 15 wins by stoppage. He is a submission fighter with some striking.
This is a cutting the fat fight as both guys are 0-1 in the UFC and most likely the loser of this fight will get cut. This is a great match up of striker v. grappler. I usually go for the grappler in this situation and I’m not veering away from that here. I’m picking Struve to get the fight to the ground where he can control it and earn the decision victory.
Paul Kelly v. Rolando Delgado: Kelly is 9-1, 2-1 in the UFC, with seven wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission ability. Delgado is 6-3-1, 1-0 in the UFC, with five wins by stoppage. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter.
Again this is a striker v. grappler match up. Kelly has more experience against better competition and Kelly is coming down from welterweight so he should have the power advantage. Normally I would pick the grappler but I like Kelly’s chances in this fight. I’m picking Kelly’s heavy hands to get him the win by TKO in the second round.
Paul Taylor v. Peter Sobotta: Taylor is 9-4-1, 2-3 in the UFC, with seven wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission ability. Sobotta is 8-1, making his UFC debut, with all eight wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission skills.
This should be a fairly even match up however I think there is a lot of pressure on Sobotta being at home in Germany and making his UFC debut. With that in mind I’ll give Taylor the slight edge and I’ll pick him to win by TKO in the second round.
Denis Siver v. Dale Hartt: Siver is 13-6, 2-3 in the UFC, with nine wins by stoppage. He is a submission fighter with some striking. Hartt is 6-1, 1-1 in the UFC, with all six wins by stoppage. He is a striker.
Siver would be smart to get this fight to the mat quickly. While Hartt’s record says he’s 1-1 in the UFC that win came via Corey Hill’s gruesome injury so Hartt hasn’t had any success in the UFC really. I think Siver can do enough on his feet to get the fight to the ground where he should have a decisive advantage.
I’m picking Siver to win by submission in the first round.
Terry Etim v. Justin Buchholz: Etim is 12-2, 3-2 in the UFC, with 11 wins by stoppage. He is a submission fighter with solid muay thai. Buchholz is 7-2, 1-1 in the UFC, with all seven wins by stoppage. He is a submission fighter with solid striking.
This should be a fairly even match up. Both these guys are submission fighters at heart but I think that will cancel each other out and it will come down to who is the better striker. In my opinion Etim should have the advantage. Due to that I’ll pick Etim to get the TKO win in the first round.
Mostapha Al-turk v. Mirko Cro Cop: Al-turk is 6-4, 0-1 in the UFC, with all six wins by stoppage. He is a striker. Cro Cop is 24-6-2, 1-2 in the UFC, with 21 wins by stoppage. He is a kickboxer.
This is a match tailor made for Cro Cop’s return. Al-turk is simply a striker and is definitely not on the level of a Gonzaga or Kongo who beat Cro Cop in his last run. I don’t see Cro Cop having much trouble here. I’ll pick Cro Cop by TKO in the first round.
Spencer Fisher v. Caol Uno: Fisher is 22-4, 7-3 in the UFC, with 19 wins by stoppage. He has good striking and submissions. Uno is 27-11-4, 3-3-1 in the UFC, with 15 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with good wrestling and submissions.
Uno makes his first appearance in the UFC in six years. Uno has been working his way back up the lightweight ladder and is not taking any cupcakes in his return to the UFC. Fisher has won two fights in a row and is always dangerous on the feet and the ground.
The key here is can Uno get the fight to the ground or can Fisher keep it on the feet. Both are solid wrestlers so it will come down to who can impose his will. I think Fisher is good enough on the ground to survive with Uno but I don’t think Uno’s striking can compare with Fisher’s.
I think Fisher has the decided advantage in one area and will use it to his advantage. I’m going to pick Fisher to win by TKO in the second round.
Marcus Davis v. Dan Hardy: Davis is 16-4, 8-2 in the UFC, with 12 wins by stoppage. He is a boxer with good jiu-jitsu. Hardy is 21-6, 2-0 in the UFC, with 15 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with a background in muay thai, tae kwon do, and has some jiu-jitsu skills.
If Davis was smart he would get this fight to the mat but I know he loves to strike and wants to beat Hardy at his own game especially after all the smack talk between the two. I do think Davis has the advantage on the feet but obviously it’s a dangerous game playing right into Hardy’s hands.
I’m still going to pick Davis to win by decision. Hardy is a tough kid so I don’t see him getting KO’d. This should be a fantastic war and possible fight of the night.
Mike Swick v. Ben Saunders: Swick is 13-2, 8-1 in the UFC, with seven wins by stoppage. He is a kickboxer with some submission skills. Saunders is 7-0-2, 3-0 in the UFC, with six wins by stoppage. He is a striker with a kickboxing and karate background along with some submission skills.
Saunders hasn’t faced anyone at the level of Swick yet and it will be interesting to see how he compares to a true contender. I think Saunders would be best served taking the fight to the mat but I’m not sure he could get it there even if he wanted to.
I think Swick will get the win here easily living up to his nickname “Quick.” I’m picking Swick by KO in the first round. I would love to see Swick take on either Jon Fitch or Martin Kampmann for a shot at the title after Thiago Alves.
Cheick Kongo v. Cain Velasquez: Kongo is 19-4-1, 7-2 in the UFC, with eight wins by KO. He is a muay thai fighter. Velasquez is 5-0, 3-0 in the UFC, with all five wins by KO. He is a wrestler with strong hands.
This will be Velasquez’ first real test in the UFC. Kongo will be the best striker Velasquez has seen and Velasquez has to be careful on his feet and in the takedown. However, Kongo is not a top level grappler as was proven against Heath Herring and Carmello Marerro who can’t hold a torch to Velasquez’ wrestling.
Velasquez should be able to hang in with Kongo on the feet until he can take him down and rough him up. Kongo is a tough guy so I don’t see Velasquez stopping him but he should do enough to rack up points. I’m picking Velasquez to win by decision. I’d like to see him go to the next level against a Randy Couture or Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira after this fight with Shane Carwin taking on whoever doesn’t get Velasquez.
Rich Franklin v. Wanderlei Silva: Franklin is 24-4, 11-3 in the UFC, with 22 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submissions. Silva is 32-9-1, 1-2 in the UFC, with 26 wins by stoppage. He is muay thai fighter with jiu-jitsu skills.
We all know that this will be a toe to toe war. No one is looking to duck the other guy’s punches. Someone is getting knocked out here the question is who?
Silva’s striking is more diverse but he also has the weaker chin. Franklin is tougher but for whatever reason is really susceptible to the muay thai clinch. Both guys should be about the same size as Silva is moving down and Franklin was always a huge middleweight so the power factor here should be negligible.
If Franklin can stay outside where he has the reach advantage he should be able to pick his spots and land the KO after he’s worn down Silva a bit. If Silva can get inside in the clinch and deliver some punishing knees and punches he could end this fight quickly.
I hate to say it because Silva may be my favorite fighter of all time but I think he’s been in too many wars and his body is breaking down. His chin appears softer and he doesn’t have the same burst that he used to. Franklin has really only been beaten by the best of the best in Anderson Silva, Dan Henderson, and Lyoto Machida. Franklin has also done a better job of staying out of those wars that take such a tremendous toll on the body.
I think Franklin will stay outside and use his length to keep Silva at bay. He will wear Silva down and eventually finish him late in the fight. I’m picking Franklin to win by TKO in the third round.
Silva is in no danger of losing his UFC contract even with his third loss because he’s such a big draw. However, he should really ask himself if it’s worth fighting anymore and maybe it’s time to move on to training. For Franklin this win doesn’t do much for his standing at light heavyweight but it puts him back at the top of people’s minds in terms of popularity.
My pick for submission of the night goes to Denis Siver. My pick for KO of the night goes to Mike Swick. And my pick for fight of the night goes to Marcus Davis v. Dan Hardy.
This should be a really great night of fights as the UFC treats us to an unusually large card of 12 fights including an unheard of six on the main card. I can’t wait to see how everything shakes out!
Stay tuned for No News Barred every Weds. on InsideFights. Until next time,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
WEC 41 Recap
Last night was another great show for the WEC. The main event between Mike Brown and Urijah Faber brought the house down and the whole show was highlighted with great finishes.
Scott Jorgensen v. Antonio Banuelos: This was a crazy brawl from start to finish. I was really surprised Jorgensen wanted to stand and bang but it didn’t appear as though he could get Banuelos to the ground. This was a great war that eventually Banuelos won by split decision. I was way off on this fight.
Manny Gamburyan v. John Franchi: I picked this one right on the nose as Manny picks up the unanimous decision victory winning all three rounds across all cards.
Jens Pulver v. Josh Grispi: This fight was very sad for me. I’ve long been a fan of Pulver and his “rags to riches” type story. Unfortunately it appears as though his fight game has just fallen off a cliff and he won’t get it back.
He’ll always be a warrior and come into the fight well trained, in shape, and ready for war but he just doesn’t have that edge anymore and the game has passed him by. Josh Grispi put this fact on full display last night choking out Pulver via a guillotine 30 seconds into the fight. I got this pick wrong.
Pulver got very emotional after the fight and it seems as though he might be hanging up the gloves. I don’t blame him after the way his last 3-4 fights have gone. It’s just sad to see the old guard (who I like) start to fade away.
Donald Cerrone v. James Krause: This fight was way out of Krause’s league. Cerrone came out very cocky but backed it up with some great striking that rocked Krause and allowed him to take his back and finish the fight via rear naked choke at the end of the first round. I got the pick right but not the prediction.
Krause did better than I thought holding his own in the stand up for awhile and even getting some takedowns on Cerrone. Unfortunately his ground game wasn’t good enough to keep Cerrone down and eventually he got caught in the stand up. Overall though for the situation he was put in I thought Krause did well. I’m looking forward to seeing what he does next against an opponent more on his level.
Jose Aldo v. Cub Swanson: Ho-ly crap! Is there anything Aldo can’t do!?
Swanson is an extremely tough fighter who has never been KO’d and Aldo took him out in eight seconds with a flying knee! This kid has to get a title shot within his next two fights or I’m boycotting the WEC. I got the pick right but not the prediction.
Mike Brown v. Urijah Faber: This fight was great. It wasn’t all that technical and there wasn’t a flashy KO or submission. But from a guts stand point these two put on the toughest performance I’ve seen from almost any two fighters through a five round fight.
Brown was obviously the bigger fighter and was having his way with Faber in the takedowns. However, Faber’s explosiveness and athleticism kept him in the fight on the ground where he was able to use that to sweep and get back to his feet.
On the feet these guys were pretty much even until Faber broke his hands sometime around the second round and had to resort strictly to kicks and elbows. Unfortunately I think the broken hands negated any chance Faber had at winning the fight as Brown picked up the unanimous decision.
I got the prediction right but I picked the wrong fighter. However, I still think a trilogy is in order given Faber’s handicap through most of the fight. I think if Faber’s hands had held up he could’ve been in a good position to get a couple submissions or even out strike Brown.
Overall this was a great night of fights. I went an average 3-3 plus one bonus point for getting the prediction right. On a brief side note Strikeforce could learn a lot from the WEC in the way of showcasing young, athletic, hungry, and talented fighters rather than pay too much for over the hill stars of yesterday. In any case, stay tuned for my UFC 99 preview and No News Barred every Wednesday on InsideFights. Until next time,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Scott Jorgensen v. Antonio Banuelos: This was a crazy brawl from start to finish. I was really surprised Jorgensen wanted to stand and bang but it didn’t appear as though he could get Banuelos to the ground. This was a great war that eventually Banuelos won by split decision. I was way off on this fight.
Manny Gamburyan v. John Franchi: I picked this one right on the nose as Manny picks up the unanimous decision victory winning all three rounds across all cards.
Jens Pulver v. Josh Grispi: This fight was very sad for me. I’ve long been a fan of Pulver and his “rags to riches” type story. Unfortunately it appears as though his fight game has just fallen off a cliff and he won’t get it back.
He’ll always be a warrior and come into the fight well trained, in shape, and ready for war but he just doesn’t have that edge anymore and the game has passed him by. Josh Grispi put this fact on full display last night choking out Pulver via a guillotine 30 seconds into the fight. I got this pick wrong.
Pulver got very emotional after the fight and it seems as though he might be hanging up the gloves. I don’t blame him after the way his last 3-4 fights have gone. It’s just sad to see the old guard (who I like) start to fade away.
Donald Cerrone v. James Krause: This fight was way out of Krause’s league. Cerrone came out very cocky but backed it up with some great striking that rocked Krause and allowed him to take his back and finish the fight via rear naked choke at the end of the first round. I got the pick right but not the prediction.
Krause did better than I thought holding his own in the stand up for awhile and even getting some takedowns on Cerrone. Unfortunately his ground game wasn’t good enough to keep Cerrone down and eventually he got caught in the stand up. Overall though for the situation he was put in I thought Krause did well. I’m looking forward to seeing what he does next against an opponent more on his level.
Jose Aldo v. Cub Swanson: Ho-ly crap! Is there anything Aldo can’t do!?
Swanson is an extremely tough fighter who has never been KO’d and Aldo took him out in eight seconds with a flying knee! This kid has to get a title shot within his next two fights or I’m boycotting the WEC. I got the pick right but not the prediction.
Mike Brown v. Urijah Faber: This fight was great. It wasn’t all that technical and there wasn’t a flashy KO or submission. But from a guts stand point these two put on the toughest performance I’ve seen from almost any two fighters through a five round fight.
Brown was obviously the bigger fighter and was having his way with Faber in the takedowns. However, Faber’s explosiveness and athleticism kept him in the fight on the ground where he was able to use that to sweep and get back to his feet.
On the feet these guys were pretty much even until Faber broke his hands sometime around the second round and had to resort strictly to kicks and elbows. Unfortunately I think the broken hands negated any chance Faber had at winning the fight as Brown picked up the unanimous decision.
I got the prediction right but I picked the wrong fighter. However, I still think a trilogy is in order given Faber’s handicap through most of the fight. I think if Faber’s hands had held up he could’ve been in a good position to get a couple submissions or even out strike Brown.
Overall this was a great night of fights. I went an average 3-3 plus one bonus point for getting the prediction right. On a brief side note Strikeforce could learn a lot from the WEC in the way of showcasing young, athletic, hungry, and talented fighters rather than pay too much for over the hill stars of yesterday. In any case, stay tuned for my UFC 99 preview and No News Barred every Wednesday on InsideFights. Until next time,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Strikeforce: Lawler v. Shields Recap
Last night left two resounding notices on the doorstep of MMA. The young guns are coming and it’s time for the old guard to step down. And Cesar Gracie’s camp is quickly moving up into superstar camp status.
Strikeforce put on a hell of a show last night in St. Louis as the two catchweight bouts stole the show and the proverbial passing of the torch was put on full display. Nick Diaz, Brett Rodgers, and Jake Shields were the big winners of the night all winning in impressive fashion and setting up potentially huge bouts down the road. I’m excited to bring you the results so let’s see what went down and how my picks went.
Rafael Cavalcante v. Mike Kyle: I picked the finish perfectly here. Unfortunately I just chose the wrong fighter. Kyle pulls off the upset with a KO victory in the second round.
This kills any chance Cavalcante has at fighting Renato Sobral for the light heavyweight title later in the year. What Strikeforce does to gin up interest in a lackluster division for them I don’t know.
Kevin Randleman v. Mike Whitehead: This fight unfortunately was one of the most disappointing fights on the card. Both guys appeared to gas by the end of the first round and the rest of the fight was very sloppy both on the feet and the ground.
Whitehead did enough in the way of takedowns to win the fight but neither guy looked impressive and if I was Strikeforce I’d look to showcase some younger up and coming talent than to bring back either of these two. It was a shame for Randleman who seemed to have finally gotten over the injury bug. He looked like he was in good shape and I don’t know if it was just an adrenaline dump that sapped him but he wasn’t ready to fight.
Even if it was an adrenaline dump, his wrestling looked poor and he barely even threw any strikes. At his advanced age I’m not sure Randleman has any good fights left in him but I think he at least deserves a second chance on an undercard to prove it once and for all.
Whitehead’s wrestling looked good but his striking looked poor and even though he got the win I’m not sure he has much of a future in Strikeforce long term. Obviously he’ll keep fighting until he loses but if you tried putting him in there with Sobral he’d get crushed.
I was really dissapointed in Randleman’s wrestling which I thought would win him the fight. Unfortunately I was way off on this one as Whitehead picks up the unanimous decision.
Phil Baroni v. Joe Riggs: While this fight also went to a decision it was much more entertaining. Baroni, as always, came to fight but as usual he was not the better fighter. Riggs came in with good striking, in good shape, and controlled the entire fight.
By the third round Riggs was taunting a beat up and exhausted Baroni who simply had no answer for Riggs diverse striking game. I picked this one right on the nose as Riggs wins by unanimous decision.
Nick Diaz v. Scott Smith: What another brilliant performance by Nick Diaz. He’s an absolute jerk and I can’t root for him but he’s hard to pick against when he fights like he has in his last two performances. Smith was totally overwhelmed in this fight.
Diaz worked his boxing brilliantly with combinations you almost never see in MMA. However, he had little to worry about in the takedown department which gave him the confidence to go in and land ridiculous combinations. He also crushed Smith with body shots just like Frank Shamrock in his last bout.
Eventually Smith got dropped by a body shot and Diaz finished him easily by rear naked choke in the third round. I didn’t give Smith enough credit for how tough he is but ultimately I got the pick right but not the prediction (only off by one round on the submission!).
Brett Rodgers v. Andrei Arlovski: This was the ultimate tale of two careers headed in different directions. The fight was over in the blink of an eye as Rodgers hit Arlovski on his no longer suspect, but weak, chin to get the KO victory in the first round.
Arlovski’s mind is obviously not in MMA anymore and after his last two brutal KO losses he needs to re-evaluate his career in MMA. If he wants to do boxing that’s great, go do that full time. Don’t pretend to be an MMA fighter anymore if you come in with performances like that against a guy you should’ve been able to beat.
For Rodgers this was the win of a lifetime. He KO’d a former UFC champion and big name opponent in under 30 seconds and this vaulted him to a title shot in a couple months. Don’t get me wrong, Rodgers is no joke but this win isn’t as big in the grand scheme of things as Rodgers and Strikeforce would like you to believe. We’ll see what happens when he goes up against Allistair Overeem in August.
I got this pick wrong. However, I would like to note that I pointed out if Arlovski’s mind wasn’t right he’d get KO’d quickly.
Robbie Lawler v. Jake Shields: Shields’ win wasn’t an upset but it was surprising how quickly he was able to put Lawler away. Shields did not look good on the feet and was unable to take Lawler down. However, his superior grappling was able to capitalize on a stupid mistake by Lawler which gave Shields a huge win.
Shields pulled off the win with a very slick guillotine choke in the first round. I don’t think Shields should move up to 185 because Lawler just out muscled Shields right up until he got tapped out. Shields needs to stay at 170 where he is a top fighter.
I got the pick right but was a couple rounds off on the submission prediction. I gave Lawler too much credit in the grappling department.
Between Shields, Diaz, and Gilbert Melendez (amongst other talented fighters including Nick’s brother Nate) the Cesar Gracie camp is starting to prove they are amongst the best in the country. They aren’t quite at the level of an Xtreme Couture or Jackson’s Submission Fighting but I think they are in the category of a Sityodtong or Arizona Combat Sports.
Outside of the Randleman v. Whitehead fight this was a great night of fights. The torch has been officially passed from veterans like Randleman, Baroni, Arlovski, and Lawler to the new generation in Strikeforce like Whitehead, Riggs, Rodgers, and Shields. I think Whitehead will probably get the next title shot at Sobral after Cavalcante got KO’d (even though he probably doesn’t deserve it after this performance).
I would love to see Riggs fight Shields for the vacant welterweight title. And Obviously Rodgers will fight Overeem for his heavyweight title.
For guys like Randleman and Baroni I’m not sure they have anything left in the tank. Baroni is 33 and Randleman is 37. They’re too old school for this sport no matter how athletic they may be. For Arlovski, he needs to just move on to boxing because his chin is too weak to fight at heavyweight with these small gloves. Also, it’s pretty obvious his heart just isn’t in it anymore.
The lone exception here is Lawler. I think Lawler is still young enough and talented enough to be competitive at 185. Unfortunately he just ran into a more talented fighter in Shields.
I went an average 3-3 with one bonus point for getting a prediction right. I can’t wait for the next Strikeforce event in August. Stay tuned for my WEC 41 review and my UFC 99 preview coming this week. And as always please read my weekly news article No News Barred every Weds. on InsideFights. Until then,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Strikeforce put on a hell of a show last night in St. Louis as the two catchweight bouts stole the show and the proverbial passing of the torch was put on full display. Nick Diaz, Brett Rodgers, and Jake Shields were the big winners of the night all winning in impressive fashion and setting up potentially huge bouts down the road. I’m excited to bring you the results so let’s see what went down and how my picks went.
Rafael Cavalcante v. Mike Kyle: I picked the finish perfectly here. Unfortunately I just chose the wrong fighter. Kyle pulls off the upset with a KO victory in the second round.
This kills any chance Cavalcante has at fighting Renato Sobral for the light heavyweight title later in the year. What Strikeforce does to gin up interest in a lackluster division for them I don’t know.
Kevin Randleman v. Mike Whitehead: This fight unfortunately was one of the most disappointing fights on the card. Both guys appeared to gas by the end of the first round and the rest of the fight was very sloppy both on the feet and the ground.
Whitehead did enough in the way of takedowns to win the fight but neither guy looked impressive and if I was Strikeforce I’d look to showcase some younger up and coming talent than to bring back either of these two. It was a shame for Randleman who seemed to have finally gotten over the injury bug. He looked like he was in good shape and I don’t know if it was just an adrenaline dump that sapped him but he wasn’t ready to fight.
Even if it was an adrenaline dump, his wrestling looked poor and he barely even threw any strikes. At his advanced age I’m not sure Randleman has any good fights left in him but I think he at least deserves a second chance on an undercard to prove it once and for all.
Whitehead’s wrestling looked good but his striking looked poor and even though he got the win I’m not sure he has much of a future in Strikeforce long term. Obviously he’ll keep fighting until he loses but if you tried putting him in there with Sobral he’d get crushed.
I was really dissapointed in Randleman’s wrestling which I thought would win him the fight. Unfortunately I was way off on this one as Whitehead picks up the unanimous decision.
Phil Baroni v. Joe Riggs: While this fight also went to a decision it was much more entertaining. Baroni, as always, came to fight but as usual he was not the better fighter. Riggs came in with good striking, in good shape, and controlled the entire fight.
By the third round Riggs was taunting a beat up and exhausted Baroni who simply had no answer for Riggs diverse striking game. I picked this one right on the nose as Riggs wins by unanimous decision.
Nick Diaz v. Scott Smith: What another brilliant performance by Nick Diaz. He’s an absolute jerk and I can’t root for him but he’s hard to pick against when he fights like he has in his last two performances. Smith was totally overwhelmed in this fight.
Diaz worked his boxing brilliantly with combinations you almost never see in MMA. However, he had little to worry about in the takedown department which gave him the confidence to go in and land ridiculous combinations. He also crushed Smith with body shots just like Frank Shamrock in his last bout.
Eventually Smith got dropped by a body shot and Diaz finished him easily by rear naked choke in the third round. I didn’t give Smith enough credit for how tough he is but ultimately I got the pick right but not the prediction (only off by one round on the submission!).
Brett Rodgers v. Andrei Arlovski: This was the ultimate tale of two careers headed in different directions. The fight was over in the blink of an eye as Rodgers hit Arlovski on his no longer suspect, but weak, chin to get the KO victory in the first round.
Arlovski’s mind is obviously not in MMA anymore and after his last two brutal KO losses he needs to re-evaluate his career in MMA. If he wants to do boxing that’s great, go do that full time. Don’t pretend to be an MMA fighter anymore if you come in with performances like that against a guy you should’ve been able to beat.
For Rodgers this was the win of a lifetime. He KO’d a former UFC champion and big name opponent in under 30 seconds and this vaulted him to a title shot in a couple months. Don’t get me wrong, Rodgers is no joke but this win isn’t as big in the grand scheme of things as Rodgers and Strikeforce would like you to believe. We’ll see what happens when he goes up against Allistair Overeem in August.
I got this pick wrong. However, I would like to note that I pointed out if Arlovski’s mind wasn’t right he’d get KO’d quickly.
Robbie Lawler v. Jake Shields: Shields’ win wasn’t an upset but it was surprising how quickly he was able to put Lawler away. Shields did not look good on the feet and was unable to take Lawler down. However, his superior grappling was able to capitalize on a stupid mistake by Lawler which gave Shields a huge win.
Shields pulled off the win with a very slick guillotine choke in the first round. I don’t think Shields should move up to 185 because Lawler just out muscled Shields right up until he got tapped out. Shields needs to stay at 170 where he is a top fighter.
I got the pick right but was a couple rounds off on the submission prediction. I gave Lawler too much credit in the grappling department.
Between Shields, Diaz, and Gilbert Melendez (amongst other talented fighters including Nick’s brother Nate) the Cesar Gracie camp is starting to prove they are amongst the best in the country. They aren’t quite at the level of an Xtreme Couture or Jackson’s Submission Fighting but I think they are in the category of a Sityodtong or Arizona Combat Sports.
Outside of the Randleman v. Whitehead fight this was a great night of fights. The torch has been officially passed from veterans like Randleman, Baroni, Arlovski, and Lawler to the new generation in Strikeforce like Whitehead, Riggs, Rodgers, and Shields. I think Whitehead will probably get the next title shot at Sobral after Cavalcante got KO’d (even though he probably doesn’t deserve it after this performance).
I would love to see Riggs fight Shields for the vacant welterweight title. And Obviously Rodgers will fight Overeem for his heavyweight title.
For guys like Randleman and Baroni I’m not sure they have anything left in the tank. Baroni is 33 and Randleman is 37. They’re too old school for this sport no matter how athletic they may be. For Arlovski, he needs to just move on to boxing because his chin is too weak to fight at heavyweight with these small gloves. Also, it’s pretty obvious his heart just isn’t in it anymore.
The lone exception here is Lawler. I think Lawler is still young enough and talented enough to be competitive at 185. Unfortunately he just ran into a more talented fighter in Shields.
I went an average 3-3 with one bonus point for getting a prediction right. I can’t wait for the next Strikeforce event in August. Stay tuned for my WEC 41 review and my UFC 99 preview coming this week. And as always please read my weekly news article No News Barred every Weds. on InsideFights. Until then,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Saturday, June 6, 2009
The Ultimate Fighter Nine: Episode Ten Review
This week started out pretty slow but the fight that capped it off ended the show on a great note. This week marked the beginning of the semi-finals. I was hoping for a two fight episode but you can't always get what you want (well, at least until next week).
The show started off with the fight announcements. Dana White was toying with the idea of team mate vs. team mate to ensure a US v. UK finale. However, White made an unusually sensible choice and stuck to the US v. UK format for the semis. White still toyed with the fighters though asking them who they wanted to fight and then giving them someone else.
The breakdowns of the semis goes like this:
Osipczak v. Johnson
Winner v. Dollar
Pearson v. Dent
Wilks v. Lester
White is obviously hoping he can get some bad blood match ups in the finale to gin up some interest. Johnson v. Wilks would be great and you really can't go wrong at lightweight with any match up but UK v. UK. The only part about the match ups I didn't like was the rematch between Wilks and Lester.
Fortunately for Lester he doesn't have many more teeth to lose. Rematches are always toughest on the team/person who won the last match up but I don't see this match up going any better for Lester than the last one.
Also, noted during the fight announcements was that Frank Lester is the only fighter to ever get beaten, comeback, and win his fight. I didn't realize that but that's an impressive feat considering all the good fighters that have been on the show in the past eight seasons.
There is some lame controversy back at the house during a BBQ between Pierce and Whitson about Pierce's heart and how he may as well go over to team UK. Pierce half heartedly stands up for himself but is totally unconvincing. He then goes on to share inside information about his teammates with the UK team turning him into the Benedict Arnold of the season.
Henderson confronts Pierce at training and of course Pierce denies it even though they have him on camera. I have no pity for Pierce and as far as I'm concerned I feel sorry for the guy because he's the one who will have to live with himself and his actions on the show.
There are the requisite training montages and fortunately they move quickly into the fight between Johnson and Osipczak. Let's break it down:
Round 1: Both fighters come out landing some good shots. Johnson takes the fight to the ground but both times Nick gets back to his feet quickly before any real damage can be done. Right before the end of the round Nick rocks Johnson.
Johnson survives the round while also landing some shots as the two go toe to toe for the last thirty seconds of the round. They both get a standing ovation but that was Nick's round after the shots he landed on Johnson.
Round 2: This round was all Johnson. He took Nick down early and stayed on top landing some good ground and pound. He almost finished Nick at the end of the round but Nick lucked out and the round ended before the ref could call the fight.
Round 3: This was a close round to call as both men were exhausted and didn't do much on the feet. Johnson landed a take down and dropped some good ground and pound. But then Nick reversed him but couldn't do much damage with the limited time left.
This was a really exciting fight and both guys should've been proud of their performance. However, the winner was Johnson who moves on to the welterweight finale in three weeks.
I'm not going to harp on this the way I did last week but I still don't like that the producers kept Mask from the Tapout crew in the show.
And I hate to end on a down note but this week nothing was worthy of my quote of the week so it'll have to wait for next week. Next week looks fantastic as both lightweight semi finals will be on display to see who will get to the finale. And Frank Lester (who needed the most rest) will square off last in two weeks against Wilks.
Until next week,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
The show started off with the fight announcements. Dana White was toying with the idea of team mate vs. team mate to ensure a US v. UK finale. However, White made an unusually sensible choice and stuck to the US v. UK format for the semis. White still toyed with the fighters though asking them who they wanted to fight and then giving them someone else.
The breakdowns of the semis goes like this:
Osipczak v. Johnson
Winner v. Dollar
Pearson v. Dent
Wilks v. Lester
White is obviously hoping he can get some bad blood match ups in the finale to gin up some interest. Johnson v. Wilks would be great and you really can't go wrong at lightweight with any match up but UK v. UK. The only part about the match ups I didn't like was the rematch between Wilks and Lester.
Fortunately for Lester he doesn't have many more teeth to lose. Rematches are always toughest on the team/person who won the last match up but I don't see this match up going any better for Lester than the last one.
Also, noted during the fight announcements was that Frank Lester is the only fighter to ever get beaten, comeback, and win his fight. I didn't realize that but that's an impressive feat considering all the good fighters that have been on the show in the past eight seasons.
There is some lame controversy back at the house during a BBQ between Pierce and Whitson about Pierce's heart and how he may as well go over to team UK. Pierce half heartedly stands up for himself but is totally unconvincing. He then goes on to share inside information about his teammates with the UK team turning him into the Benedict Arnold of the season.
Henderson confronts Pierce at training and of course Pierce denies it even though they have him on camera. I have no pity for Pierce and as far as I'm concerned I feel sorry for the guy because he's the one who will have to live with himself and his actions on the show.
There are the requisite training montages and fortunately they move quickly into the fight between Johnson and Osipczak. Let's break it down:
Round 1: Both fighters come out landing some good shots. Johnson takes the fight to the ground but both times Nick gets back to his feet quickly before any real damage can be done. Right before the end of the round Nick rocks Johnson.
Johnson survives the round while also landing some shots as the two go toe to toe for the last thirty seconds of the round. They both get a standing ovation but that was Nick's round after the shots he landed on Johnson.
Round 2: This round was all Johnson. He took Nick down early and stayed on top landing some good ground and pound. He almost finished Nick at the end of the round but Nick lucked out and the round ended before the ref could call the fight.
Round 3: This was a close round to call as both men were exhausted and didn't do much on the feet. Johnson landed a take down and dropped some good ground and pound. But then Nick reversed him but couldn't do much damage with the limited time left.
This was a really exciting fight and both guys should've been proud of their performance. However, the winner was Johnson who moves on to the welterweight finale in three weeks.
I'm not going to harp on this the way I did last week but I still don't like that the producers kept Mask from the Tapout crew in the show.
And I hate to end on a down note but this week nothing was worthy of my quote of the week so it'll have to wait for next week. Next week looks fantastic as both lightweight semi finals will be on display to see who will get to the finale. And Frank Lester (who needed the most rest) will square off last in two weeks against Wilks.
Until next week,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Thursday, June 4, 2009
WEC 41 Preview
Mike Brown and Urijah Faber meet up for the second time to determine who the best 145 lb fighter in the world is. This time though Faber will have the hometown advantage in Sacramento, California. This should be an awesome match up and something tells me it won’t be over as quick as the last fight. We should be in for a barn burner!
Also on the card are three other interesting featherweight match ups. Rising star Jose Aldo takes on the always tough Cub Swanson. Jens Pulver looks to rebound from three consecutive losses against up and comer Josh Grispi. And last but not least Manny Gamburyan makes his debut at 145 lbs after coming down from the UFC’s lightweight division. There are some very interesting fights on this card so let’s start breaking them down:
Scott Jorgensen v. Antonio Banuelos: Jorgensen is 6-2, 2-1 in the WEC, with three wins by submission. He is a grappler with good wrestling and jiu-jitsu. Antonio Banuelos is 15-5, 6-4 in the WEC, with eight wins by stoppage. He is a striker.
This should be your classic grappler vs. striker match up. Jorgensen is a fast riser at bantamweight and I always like the grappler over the striker. Banuelos has good coaching coming out of The Pit with trainer John Hackelman and training with Chuck Liddell et al.
I like Jorgensen in this fight who has never been KO’d and who has the grappling skills to put Banuelos, who is prone to submissions, away. I’m picking Jorgensen by submission in the first round.
Manny Gamburyan v. John Franchi: Manny is 8-4, making his WEC debut, with seven wins by stoppage. He is grappler with strong judo. Franchi is 5-0, 1-0 in the WEC, with all four wins by stoppage. He is striker with some submission ability.
Manny is a huge 145 lb fighter who has fought as high as 170 lbs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Manny over 160 lbs by fight time so he should have a big size advantage. The problem with Manny though is that he is a great grappler but sometimes goes out throwing bombs to entertain instead of win the fight.
If Manny can stay within himself and do what he does best I like him in this fight due to his size, experience on the big stage, and his grappling ability. But if he goes out swinging for the fences I think Franchi will catch him. My gut here is that Manny is looking to show the WEC that he is a contender at 145 and will not be happy with a loss even an exciting one.
I’m picking Manny by decision. I think he’ll control Franchi and take him to the mat rendering his striking inefficient. Franchi can still be dangerous on the ground but given how big Manny should be, as long as Manny has top control, I see him earning a decision win with his strong grappling game.
Jens Pulver v. Josh Grispi: Pulver is 21-11-1, 1-3 in the WEC, with 16 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with solid wrestling. Grispi is 12-1, 2-0 in the WEC, with 11 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission skills.
Pulver has looked over the hill as of late but considering his three losses have come from Urijah Faber (twice) and Leonard Garcia I don’t think he’s as over the hill as he’s looked. This fight will tell the real truth. Obviously both guys could stand and bang in which case I would give the advantage to Pulver.
However, if Grispi is able to get the fight to the mat, which is tough against Pulver, I think Grispi could put himself in good position to win the fight. I think the x factor in this fight comes down to how bad Pulver wants this win. If he gives it 110% and is able to stay on his feet the whole time I think Pulver can get the win. If Pulver is over MMA mentally I think Grispi could easily knock Pulver out or take him down and finish the fight.
You can call me naive but I think Pulver still has something left in the tank. I think he’ll use his wrestling to stay on the feet. Grispi is a tough kid so I don’t think Pulver will get the KO but I think he can pull out a decision victory.
Donald Cerrone v. James Krause: Cerrone is 9-1, 2-1 in the WEC, with eight wins by submission. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter with good muay thai as well. Krause is 10-0, making his WEC debut, with all 10 wins by stoppage. He is also a jiu-jitsu fighter with solid striking.
Cerrone comes out of Greg Jackson’s camp which has produced many successful fighters. He is coming off his only defeat, a controversial split decision loss to Jamie Varner for the WEC lightweight championship. I think Cerrone will want to come out and crush his next opponent to get another title shot as soon as possible. Cerrone is incredibly talented and Krause has never faced anyone on Cerrone’s level before.
This will also be a tough fight for Krause who is making his first appearance on a big show on the main card against a name opponent. While this is a great opportunity for him it might be a little overwhelming. While both of these guys are solid jiu-jitsu artists I think Cerrone will want to keep the fight on the feet where he should have the advantage.
I like Cerrone to put an end to Krause’s undefeated streak. I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Cerrone to get his first TKO victory in the second round.
Jose Aldo v. Cub Swanson: Aldo is 14-1, 4-0 in the WEC, with 11 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission skills. Swanson is 13-2, 3-1 in the WEC, with six wins by submission. He is a wrestler with some jiu-jitsu.
This should be another good clash of styles. If Swanson can use his wrestling to get the fight to mat he will have a chance in this fight. However, Aldo has really been on a tear and has looked really good. I think Aldo will be able to keep the fight standing and use his vastly superior striking to win the fight.
Swanson is a tough guy so I don’t think Aldo will KO him. However, I do think Aldo is just the overall better fighter so I will pick him to win by decision.
Mike Brown v. Urijah Faber: Mike Brown is 21-4, 3-0 in the WEC, with 16 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with strong wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and heavy hands. Faber is 22-2, 7-1 in the WEC, with 18 wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with good striking and improving jiu-jitsu.
This rematch should be a very different fight than the lest time these two met. Faber didn’t respect Brown’s striking enough and paid for it by getting KO’d trying an unorthodox elbow strike. Faber who badly wants his belt back and to avenge his loss should come in much more prepared and probably a little more cautious.
Brown is the real deal at 145. He has no true weaknesses though technically his striking is probably not as good as Faber’s but his power makes up for it. Urijah is the better wrestler but Brown is probably the better all around grappler with his impressive submission game.
Brown comes out of a great camp at American Top Team where he trains with some real animals. These guys are both great fighters and it’s a really tough fight to pick. I think whoever wins, it should be a good fight. But I’m here to make predictions so that’s what I’m going to do.
I’m think Faber will implement a more tactical and technical striking game than last time. He will be more cautious of Brown’s power now that he knows what it feels like. I think his cardio will keep him away from Brown’s power and will create angles on his strikes that will generate points and frustrate Brown. Brown will be unable to take Faber down where he would have the advantage due to Faber’s superior wrestling.
Brown is a tough guy who should be able to last all five rounds. With all that in mind I’m going to pick Faber by decision in what might start out as a somewhat boring striking match but I think as the rounds wear on will become increasingly exciting. This win will flip flop these two atop the 145 lb rankings and set up the first super trilogy in WEC history. Until next time,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Also on the card are three other interesting featherweight match ups. Rising star Jose Aldo takes on the always tough Cub Swanson. Jens Pulver looks to rebound from three consecutive losses against up and comer Josh Grispi. And last but not least Manny Gamburyan makes his debut at 145 lbs after coming down from the UFC’s lightweight division. There are some very interesting fights on this card so let’s start breaking them down:
Scott Jorgensen v. Antonio Banuelos: Jorgensen is 6-2, 2-1 in the WEC, with three wins by submission. He is a grappler with good wrestling and jiu-jitsu. Antonio Banuelos is 15-5, 6-4 in the WEC, with eight wins by stoppage. He is a striker.
This should be your classic grappler vs. striker match up. Jorgensen is a fast riser at bantamweight and I always like the grappler over the striker. Banuelos has good coaching coming out of The Pit with trainer John Hackelman and training with Chuck Liddell et al.
I like Jorgensen in this fight who has never been KO’d and who has the grappling skills to put Banuelos, who is prone to submissions, away. I’m picking Jorgensen by submission in the first round.
Manny Gamburyan v. John Franchi: Manny is 8-4, making his WEC debut, with seven wins by stoppage. He is grappler with strong judo. Franchi is 5-0, 1-0 in the WEC, with all four wins by stoppage. He is striker with some submission ability.
Manny is a huge 145 lb fighter who has fought as high as 170 lbs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Manny over 160 lbs by fight time so he should have a big size advantage. The problem with Manny though is that he is a great grappler but sometimes goes out throwing bombs to entertain instead of win the fight.
If Manny can stay within himself and do what he does best I like him in this fight due to his size, experience on the big stage, and his grappling ability. But if he goes out swinging for the fences I think Franchi will catch him. My gut here is that Manny is looking to show the WEC that he is a contender at 145 and will not be happy with a loss even an exciting one.
I’m picking Manny by decision. I think he’ll control Franchi and take him to the mat rendering his striking inefficient. Franchi can still be dangerous on the ground but given how big Manny should be, as long as Manny has top control, I see him earning a decision win with his strong grappling game.
Jens Pulver v. Josh Grispi: Pulver is 21-11-1, 1-3 in the WEC, with 16 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with solid wrestling. Grispi is 12-1, 2-0 in the WEC, with 11 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission skills.
Pulver has looked over the hill as of late but considering his three losses have come from Urijah Faber (twice) and Leonard Garcia I don’t think he’s as over the hill as he’s looked. This fight will tell the real truth. Obviously both guys could stand and bang in which case I would give the advantage to Pulver.
However, if Grispi is able to get the fight to the mat, which is tough against Pulver, I think Grispi could put himself in good position to win the fight. I think the x factor in this fight comes down to how bad Pulver wants this win. If he gives it 110% and is able to stay on his feet the whole time I think Pulver can get the win. If Pulver is over MMA mentally I think Grispi could easily knock Pulver out or take him down and finish the fight.
You can call me naive but I think Pulver still has something left in the tank. I think he’ll use his wrestling to stay on the feet. Grispi is a tough kid so I don’t think Pulver will get the KO but I think he can pull out a decision victory.
Donald Cerrone v. James Krause: Cerrone is 9-1, 2-1 in the WEC, with eight wins by submission. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter with good muay thai as well. Krause is 10-0, making his WEC debut, with all 10 wins by stoppage. He is also a jiu-jitsu fighter with solid striking.
Cerrone comes out of Greg Jackson’s camp which has produced many successful fighters. He is coming off his only defeat, a controversial split decision loss to Jamie Varner for the WEC lightweight championship. I think Cerrone will want to come out and crush his next opponent to get another title shot as soon as possible. Cerrone is incredibly talented and Krause has never faced anyone on Cerrone’s level before.
This will also be a tough fight for Krause who is making his first appearance on a big show on the main card against a name opponent. While this is a great opportunity for him it might be a little overwhelming. While both of these guys are solid jiu-jitsu artists I think Cerrone will want to keep the fight on the feet where he should have the advantage.
I like Cerrone to put an end to Krause’s undefeated streak. I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Cerrone to get his first TKO victory in the second round.
Jose Aldo v. Cub Swanson: Aldo is 14-1, 4-0 in the WEC, with 11 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission skills. Swanson is 13-2, 3-1 in the WEC, with six wins by submission. He is a wrestler with some jiu-jitsu.
This should be another good clash of styles. If Swanson can use his wrestling to get the fight to mat he will have a chance in this fight. However, Aldo has really been on a tear and has looked really good. I think Aldo will be able to keep the fight standing and use his vastly superior striking to win the fight.
Swanson is a tough guy so I don’t think Aldo will KO him. However, I do think Aldo is just the overall better fighter so I will pick him to win by decision.
Mike Brown v. Urijah Faber: Mike Brown is 21-4, 3-0 in the WEC, with 16 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with strong wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and heavy hands. Faber is 22-2, 7-1 in the WEC, with 18 wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with good striking and improving jiu-jitsu.
This rematch should be a very different fight than the lest time these two met. Faber didn’t respect Brown’s striking enough and paid for it by getting KO’d trying an unorthodox elbow strike. Faber who badly wants his belt back and to avenge his loss should come in much more prepared and probably a little more cautious.
Brown is the real deal at 145. He has no true weaknesses though technically his striking is probably not as good as Faber’s but his power makes up for it. Urijah is the better wrestler but Brown is probably the better all around grappler with his impressive submission game.
Brown comes out of a great camp at American Top Team where he trains with some real animals. These guys are both great fighters and it’s a really tough fight to pick. I think whoever wins, it should be a good fight. But I’m here to make predictions so that’s what I’m going to do.
I’m think Faber will implement a more tactical and technical striking game than last time. He will be more cautious of Brown’s power now that he knows what it feels like. I think his cardio will keep him away from Brown’s power and will create angles on his strikes that will generate points and frustrate Brown. Brown will be unable to take Faber down where he would have the advantage due to Faber’s superior wrestling.
Brown is a tough guy who should be able to last all five rounds. With all that in mind I’m going to pick Faber by decision in what might start out as a somewhat boring striking match but I think as the rounds wear on will become increasingly exciting. This win will flip flop these two atop the 145 lb rankings and set up the first super trilogy in WEC history. Until next time,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Strikeforce: Lawler v. Shields Preview
Live from St. Louis on Saturday June 6th, Strikeforce returns with their second major card since their purchase of EliteXC. The main card is pretty stacked and I can’t wait to see how a lot of the new additions to Strikeforce will shake things up. Let’s start breaking down the fights:
Rafael Cavalcante v. Mike Kyle: Cavalcante is 7-1, making his Strikeforce debut, with all seven wins by stoppage. He is a muay thai fighter. Kyle is 11-6-1, 0-1-1 in Strikeforce, with nine wins by stoppage. He is also a striker.
Kyle is stepping in for Renato Sobral who backed out of the fight due to his wife’s due date with their child being too close to the fight. So instead of Cavalcante getting a title shot on the main card he’s been relegated to the undercard. I think this could either really motivate him or totally drain him of motivation.
I’m betting on the former and I think Cavalcante has the better striking. I’m expecting this fight to have a brutal finish. I’m picking Cavalcante to win by KO in the second round.
Kevin Randleman v. Mike Whitehead: Randleman is 17-12, making his Strikeforce debut, with nine wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with strong ground and pound. Whitehead is 23-7, also making his Strikeforce debut, with 17 wins by stoppage. He is wrestler with solid boxing.
Randleman is the better wrestler and I expect him to do what he always does and take Whitehead down and try to pound him out. Whitehead, a solid grappler in his own right, is not dangerous off his back and I don’t expect him to pose any threat once Randleman takes him down. I’m going to pick Randleman to win via TKO in the second round using his brutal ground and pound.
Phil Baroni v. Joe Riggs: Baroni is 13-10, 0-1 in Strikeforce, with 10 wins by stoppage. He is a boxer with solid wrestling. Riggs is 29-10, 2-2 in Strikeforce, with 27 wins by stoppage. He has solid boxing, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu.
Pure and simple I think Riggs is the better fighter with more tools in his belt. I expect him to come out and handle Baroni. I don’t know if Riggs could get Baroni to the mat so I think he’ll have to win on his feet. I’m picking Riggs to win by decision.
Nick Diaz v. Scott Smith: Diaz is 19-7, 1-0 in Strikeforce, with 16 wins by stoppage. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter with really good boxing. Smith is 15-5, 2-0 in Strikeforce, with all 15 wins by stoppage. He is striker.
Diaz is lucky to have a promotion cater so much to him giving him his second catch weight bout in a row as he can’t decide whether to stay down at 170 or move up to 185. This fight will take place again at 179 lbs. In any case, he gets a strong opponent here in Smith who is as tough as they come and is an excellent striker. Unfortunately for Smith, Diaz is a very good boxer but his grappling game is light years ahead of Smith’s.
If Diaz has any brains at all he will use his striking to set up a take down where he should have a pretty easy time with Smith. I’m picking Diaz to win by submission in the second round.
Andrei Arlovski v. Brett Rogers: Arlovski is 15-6, making his Strikeforce debut, with 14 wins by stoppage. He is well rounded but mostly utilizes his boxing and wrestling now in a sprawl and brawl style. However he also has sambo, kickboxing, and jiu-jitsu backgrounds. Rogers is 9-0, 1-0 in Strikeforce, with all nine wins by stoppage. He is a also a striker.
This will be Rogers first major test at heavyweight. He will be the bigger fighter as usual but he will be facing a more technically sound fighter who can actually use his speed to his advantage. I don’t think Rogers is ready to handle the type of striking Arlovski brings to the table.
In the past I would’ve suggested Arlovski try to get the fight to the mat but since he’s bouncing back and forth between this and boxing he’s stuck to striking in his most recent fights. However, in this fight it shouldn’t be an issue. He’ll move around and create angles on the much bigger but slower Rogers.
The only thing that concerns me in this fight is Arlvoski’s frame of mind. He’s coming off a devastating loss and has been flirting with switching to boxing. If his mind is in the right place I like him in this fight. If not it will be a short night for him. However, I’m betting that his head will be in this fight and he’ll frustrate Rogers and wear him down until he can go in for the kill. I like Arlovski to win easily in the fight with a TKO victory in the first round.
Robbie Lawler v. Jake Shields: Lawler is 18-4, making his Strikeforce debut, with 16 wins by stoppage. He is a striker. Shields is 22-4-1, also making his Strikeforce debut, with 11 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with strong wrestling and jiu-jitsu.
This should be a great clash of styles match at a catch weight of 182 lbs. Shields is moving up for this fight so Lawler should have the size advantage. If Shields can get Lawler to the mat he should be able to get the win. However, if he can’t get the fight to mat he will be in for a short night.
I usually go for the grappler plus I think Shields is just the better fighter but I’m more cautious than usual due to the size difference between him and Lawler. I think I’m going to stick with my instincts though and say that Shields uses his wrestling technique to take down the larger Lawler.
Once he has him on the ground his vastly superior jiu-jitsu will take over and I expect him to submit Lawler. I’m picking Shields by submission in the third round.
This should be an exciting night of fights and I can’t wait to see all the new additions to the Strikeforce roster. Until next time,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
Rafael Cavalcante v. Mike Kyle: Cavalcante is 7-1, making his Strikeforce debut, with all seven wins by stoppage. He is a muay thai fighter. Kyle is 11-6-1, 0-1-1 in Strikeforce, with nine wins by stoppage. He is also a striker.
Kyle is stepping in for Renato Sobral who backed out of the fight due to his wife’s due date with their child being too close to the fight. So instead of Cavalcante getting a title shot on the main card he’s been relegated to the undercard. I think this could either really motivate him or totally drain him of motivation.
I’m betting on the former and I think Cavalcante has the better striking. I’m expecting this fight to have a brutal finish. I’m picking Cavalcante to win by KO in the second round.
Kevin Randleman v. Mike Whitehead: Randleman is 17-12, making his Strikeforce debut, with nine wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with strong ground and pound. Whitehead is 23-7, also making his Strikeforce debut, with 17 wins by stoppage. He is wrestler with solid boxing.
Randleman is the better wrestler and I expect him to do what he always does and take Whitehead down and try to pound him out. Whitehead, a solid grappler in his own right, is not dangerous off his back and I don’t expect him to pose any threat once Randleman takes him down. I’m going to pick Randleman to win via TKO in the second round using his brutal ground and pound.
Phil Baroni v. Joe Riggs: Baroni is 13-10, 0-1 in Strikeforce, with 10 wins by stoppage. He is a boxer with solid wrestling. Riggs is 29-10, 2-2 in Strikeforce, with 27 wins by stoppage. He has solid boxing, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu.
Pure and simple I think Riggs is the better fighter with more tools in his belt. I expect him to come out and handle Baroni. I don’t know if Riggs could get Baroni to the mat so I think he’ll have to win on his feet. I’m picking Riggs to win by decision.
Nick Diaz v. Scott Smith: Diaz is 19-7, 1-0 in Strikeforce, with 16 wins by stoppage. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter with really good boxing. Smith is 15-5, 2-0 in Strikeforce, with all 15 wins by stoppage. He is striker.
Diaz is lucky to have a promotion cater so much to him giving him his second catch weight bout in a row as he can’t decide whether to stay down at 170 or move up to 185. This fight will take place again at 179 lbs. In any case, he gets a strong opponent here in Smith who is as tough as they come and is an excellent striker. Unfortunately for Smith, Diaz is a very good boxer but his grappling game is light years ahead of Smith’s.
If Diaz has any brains at all he will use his striking to set up a take down where he should have a pretty easy time with Smith. I’m picking Diaz to win by submission in the second round.
Andrei Arlovski v. Brett Rogers: Arlovski is 15-6, making his Strikeforce debut, with 14 wins by stoppage. He is well rounded but mostly utilizes his boxing and wrestling now in a sprawl and brawl style. However he also has sambo, kickboxing, and jiu-jitsu backgrounds. Rogers is 9-0, 1-0 in Strikeforce, with all nine wins by stoppage. He is a also a striker.
This will be Rogers first major test at heavyweight. He will be the bigger fighter as usual but he will be facing a more technically sound fighter who can actually use his speed to his advantage. I don’t think Rogers is ready to handle the type of striking Arlovski brings to the table.
In the past I would’ve suggested Arlovski try to get the fight to the mat but since he’s bouncing back and forth between this and boxing he’s stuck to striking in his most recent fights. However, in this fight it shouldn’t be an issue. He’ll move around and create angles on the much bigger but slower Rogers.
The only thing that concerns me in this fight is Arlvoski’s frame of mind. He’s coming off a devastating loss and has been flirting with switching to boxing. If his mind is in the right place I like him in this fight. If not it will be a short night for him. However, I’m betting that his head will be in this fight and he’ll frustrate Rogers and wear him down until he can go in for the kill. I like Arlovski to win easily in the fight with a TKO victory in the first round.
Robbie Lawler v. Jake Shields: Lawler is 18-4, making his Strikeforce debut, with 16 wins by stoppage. He is a striker. Shields is 22-4-1, also making his Strikeforce debut, with 11 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with strong wrestling and jiu-jitsu.
This should be a great clash of styles match at a catch weight of 182 lbs. Shields is moving up for this fight so Lawler should have the size advantage. If Shields can get Lawler to the mat he should be able to get the win. However, if he can’t get the fight to mat he will be in for a short night.
I usually go for the grappler plus I think Shields is just the better fighter but I’m more cautious than usual due to the size difference between him and Lawler. I think I’m going to stick with my instincts though and say that Shields uses his wrestling technique to take down the larger Lawler.
Once he has him on the ground his vastly superior jiu-jitsu will take over and I expect him to submit Lawler. I’m picking Shields by submission in the third round.
This should be an exciting night of fights and I can’t wait to see all the new additions to the Strikeforce roster. Until next time,
Soccer kicks and head stomps...
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