The UFC returns to Versus this Sunday featuring their biggest rising star Jon "Bones" Jones vs Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko. This is the UFC's first return to Versus since March and their first card in almost a month.
This card also features Mark Munoz vs Yushin Okami in a pivotal middleweight tilt. And Takanori Gomi looks to notch his first UFC win against the always tough Tyson Griffin. This should be a solid card filled with good young talent, so let's break it down:
Main Event:
Jon Jones vs Vladimir Matyushenko
Jones is 10-1 with eight wins by stoppage. He has a strong wrestling background and a very versatile striking game. He has slowly moved up the 205 lb ladder and his only defeat came by disqualification in a fight he was dominating.
Matyushenko is 24-4 with 14 wins by stoppage. He also has a strong wrestling background with some striking skills. He has fought a lot of tough competition and all of his losses have come against reputable opponents.
All signs point to Jones winning this fight. Jones has the better technical striking. He is younger, bigger, faster, more athletic, probably stronger, and has an enormous reach advantage.
The only thing Matyushenko has going for him is he has much more experience and his pure wrestling ability is probably greater than Jones'. If Matyshenko can stay smart, get inside, and put Jones on his back and keep him there for 15 minutes he might be able to steal this fight.
If Matyushenko can't do that he's going to be in a heap of trouble. I'm picking Jones to pick apart Matyushenko on the outside until he's able to stop the fight in the second round for the TKO victory.
Jones is a rising star in the UFC light heavyweight division. Hopefully they don't rush him along too quickly and we get to see Jones against a couple more high quality opponents before he's given a title shot.
Main Card:
Mark Munoz vs Yushin Okami
Munoz is 8-1 with five wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with a developing BJJ and striking game. He has fought some tough fighters with success in the middleweight division.
Okami is 24-5 with 13 wins by stoppage. He is also a wrestler with a strong Judo and striking pedigree. He has fought a lot of tough fighters with a lot of success.
These guys are essentially mirror images of each other but Okami has more experience and a more developed all around grappling and striking game. Unless Munoz has become much more proficient in his striking and submission game I can't see him out wrestling Okami for 15 minutes.
I'm picking Okami to grind out another tough decision victory against a game opponent.
John Howard vs Jake Ellenberger
Howard is 14-4 with 10 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with some striking skill. He has faced some tough fighters with mostly positive results.
Ellenberger is 22-5 with 19 wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with a strong striking game. He has faced some tough opponents with mixed results.
I don't think Howard has the striking to stay with Ellenberger on the feet though anything can happen in an MMA fight. Howard will probably look to use his BJJ where he has an advantage but I don't think he'll catch Ellenberger even if he can get the fight to the mat. I'm picking Ellenberger to win by TKO in the first round.
Tyson Griffin vs Takanori "The Fireball Kid" Gomi
Griffin is 14-3 with eight wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler who likes to strike. He has fought a lot of tough fighters with mostly positive results.
Gomi is 31-6 with 17 wins by stoppage. He is a boxer with a solid wrestling background. He has fought the best in the business and was the Pride lightweight champion, but he has flamed out as of late (pun intended).
Neither of these guys is going to want to take the fight down even with their wrestling backgrounds so it should be a fun fight. Griffin is going to bring his entire striking arsenal at Gomi and I don't think Gomi is going to have the answer.
Gomi may only be 31 but this sport has passed him by and he hasn't done much about it over the last two years. I'm picking Griffin to win a fun and lopsided decision victory. This loss will probably spell the end of Gomi's UFC career and will help revive Griffin's.
Preliminary Card:
Paul Kelly vs Jacob Volkmann
Volkmann hasn't looked good since joining the UFC. However, I think moving down to lightweight was a good move for him and he should be more accustomed to the weight for this fight.
Kelly has seen more success in the UFC than Volkmann but I think both fighters are going to want to impose their will on the other and I think Volkmann's size and wrestling will be the difference. I'm picking Volkmann to win by submission in the second round.
DaMarques Johnson vs Matthew Riddle
Johnson has the better striking and more experience but I think Riddle has the better grappling and is the more talented fighter. I'm picking Riddle to grind out a decision victory.
James Irvin vs Igor Pokrajac
Irivin hasn't looked good in the last couple years but Pokrajac has never beaten anyone of note. It will be a classic striker vs grappler match up which I usually give to the grappler but I think Irvin will use whatever wrestling ability he has to stay up right and land the KO blow in the second round.
Brian Stann vs Mike Massenzio
Massenzio wasn't a bad fighter but he has been out of the game for two years and that's too long a layoff to jump back into the UFC against someone like Stann. Massenzio will rely on his grappling but I don't think it will be enough against Stann's boxing. I'm picking Stann to win by TKO in the first round.
Darren Elkins vs Charles Oliveira
Elkins has the advantage in wrestling and in experience against better competition. However, I think Oliveira has the answer wherever the fight goes. Normally I don't pick UFC rookies but I'm making an exception here. I'm picking Oliveira to win by TKO in the first round.
Rob Kimmons vs Steve Steinbeiss
Both of these guys are coming off losses and long lay offs so this is an important fight for both guys. Kimmons has faced more and better competition even if hasn't done so well against it. He also has the grappling advantage.
Stenbeiss could knock him out but I'm picking Kimmons to win by submission in the first round. This loss will put Steinbeiss on the chopping block most likely and resuscitate Kimmons' UFC career.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
UFC 116 Preview
This Saturday the UFC will put on their annual July 4th weekend spectacular in Las Vegas. This weekend also marks the long awaited return of UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar after a year off due to an almost life threatening health issue. Lesnar will battle the interim heavyweight champion Shane Carwin in what must be literally the largest battle ever to take place inside the Octagon.
The rest of the card is made up of interesting match ups but very little star power. Let's break it down:
Main Event:
Heavyweight Championship: Brock Lesnar(c) vs Shane Carwin
Lesnar is 4-1 with three wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with brutal ground and pound. He is the current UFC champion, has beaten some of the best in the game to get there, and has avenged his only loss.
Carwin is 12-0 with all 12 wins by stoppage. He is also a wrestler with very heavy hands. Carwin has beaten a couple tough opponents on his road to the title shot.
The UFC is going to have to reinforce the cage to hold these two animals. Both men cut to 265 and there could easily be close to 600 lbs of beef in the cage by the time this fight goes down.
These two are almost mirror images of each other. They both have very good wrestling backgrounds and both are still developing their overall MMA game. They are also both freakish athletes for their size.
With that said this fight could very easily go either way. If Lesnar imposes his will on Carwin I can't see him lasting five rounds on his back. But Lesnar hasn't faced anyone with punching power anywhere close to Carwin's.
I'm picking Carwin's wrestling to be just good enough to keep it standing where he will touch Lesnar enough times to end this fight. I'm picking Carwin to win by TKO in the first round and become the new UFC heavyweight champion.
Main Card:
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Chris Leben
Akiyama is 13-1 with 12 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler first with a solid striking game as well. Akiyama has faced some tough fighters with good results. In fact his only loss came in a K-1 open weight bout against a heavyweight.
Leben is 20-6 with 15 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with a decent grappling pedigree. He has fought a lot of tough fighters with mixed results.
Even though Akiyama has also been out for a year I don't see that being an issue in this fight. As long as Akiyama doesn't get stupid and tries to stand toe to toe with Leben he shouldn't have any issues in this fight. Akiyama will want to use angles and speed to set up a take down where he can put the fight in his world.
On the ground Leben can only survive for so long before he succumbs to Akiyama's superior jiu jitsu. I'm picking Akiyama to win by submission in the third round.
Chris Lytle vs Matt Brown
Lytle is 28-17-5 with 22 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with some boxing skills. He has fought a ton of tough fighters but with less than stellar results.
Brown is 11-8 with all 11 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some grappling skills. He has faced some tough fighters with mixed results.
This should be an interesting match up as both guys are looking to improve their record. Lytle obviously wants this fight on the mat while Brown will want to keep it standing against a grappler the calibre of Lytle.
I think Lytle's experience against some of the best in the game will help him get the job done here as long as he doesn't get caught by a lucky punch. I'm picking Lytle to win by submission in the second round.
Krzysztof Soszynski vs Stephan Bonnar
Soszynski is 19-9-1 with 18 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with solid boxing. He has faced some tough fighters with mixed results.
Bonnar is 11-7 with nine wins by stoppage. He is a grappler who loves to strike. He has faced some tough fighters with mostly negative results.
This is Bonnar's last chance much the same way Keith Jardine got one last shot a couple weeks ago. Bonnar is riding a three fight losing streak courtesy of embarrassing losses to Jon Jones, Mark Coleman, and a controversial loss on cuts due to a headbutt to Soszynski back in Feb.
This fight pairs the two up again to hopefully clear the air after such a controversial decision and to give Bonnar one last (fair) chance to save his UFC career. I still feel that Bonnar would do himself a favor by trying to go to the ground but I don't see him wanting to do that or being successful there.
So they will stand and Soszynski should get the better of the stand up. That's why I'm picking him to win by decision.
George Sotiropoulos vs Kurt Pellegrino
Sotiropoulos is 12-2 with eight wins by stoppage. He is a jiu jitsu fighter with a little boxing. He has faced some tough fighters with mostly positive results. In fact he avenged one of his two losses and his only other loss came to lightweight stand out Shinya Aoki.
Pellegrino is 15-4 with 11 wins by stoppage. He is also a grappler with some striking. He has faced some tough fighters with mixed results.
I get the feeling these two grapplers will cancel each other out on the ground leaving them to try and duke it out. This could go either way since neither is a noted striker but my gut feeling is that Pellegrino will have the edge. I'm picking Pellegrino to win by decision.
Preliminary Card:
Brendan Schaub vs Chris Tuchscherer
Schaub is still a young fighter and could make a stupid mistake against a veteran like Tuchscherer. However, I also think Schaub is more talented than Tuchscherer. He certainly is in the striking department.
So between Schaub's talent and his athleticism I'm picking him to win by TKO in the first round.
Seth Petruzelli vs Ricardo Romero
The Kimbo killer is back! Petruzelli returns to the UFC for the first time since 2007.
Romero has a nice well rounded game but he's going up against his toughest opponent to date while also making his UFC debut. I don't like those odds even if the kid is virtually undefeated.
I'm picking Petruzelli to overwhelm Romero with strikes and grab the TKO win in the first round.
Kendall Grove vs Goran Reljic
Neither of these guys look too good right now. However, while Grove hasn't been able to put anything consistent together in a while Reljic is still coming back from a major injury. So I think he looks much more promising to bounce back right now.
I'm picking Reljic to win by KO in the first round.
Gerald Harris vs Dave Branch
Both of these guys have a lot of upside but neither has proven much at this point in their careers. Harris has faced tougher competition and has fought in the UFC before.
Both have well rounded games but I'm betting Harris' striking and wrestling is better while Branch has the better jiu jitsu. But I'm going to throw logic out the window on this one because Branch represents Brooklyn! I'm picking Branch to stay undefeated with a decision victory.
Daniel Roberts vs Forrest Petz
This is an extremely tough fight to call. Petz is your typical journeyman and hasn't fought in the UFC since 2007. Roberts was a good looking prospect until being promptly KO'd in the first round in his first UFC fight.
I'm going to stick with the promise of Roberts' wrestling and BJJ to get him through this fight. I'm going to pick Roberts to win by submission in the first round.
Jon Madsen vs Karlos Vemola
Both of these guys are wrestlers who have the ability to finish fights. Madsen has been riding a nice little wave since being on TUF 10.
I see that continuing here. I think Madsen probably has the better wrestling and also has some UFC experience. I'm picking Madsen to stay undefeated with a decision victory.
The rest of the card is made up of interesting match ups but very little star power. Let's break it down:
Main Event:
Heavyweight Championship: Brock Lesnar(c) vs Shane Carwin
Lesnar is 4-1 with three wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with brutal ground and pound. He is the current UFC champion, has beaten some of the best in the game to get there, and has avenged his only loss.
Carwin is 12-0 with all 12 wins by stoppage. He is also a wrestler with very heavy hands. Carwin has beaten a couple tough opponents on his road to the title shot.
The UFC is going to have to reinforce the cage to hold these two animals. Both men cut to 265 and there could easily be close to 600 lbs of beef in the cage by the time this fight goes down.
These two are almost mirror images of each other. They both have very good wrestling backgrounds and both are still developing their overall MMA game. They are also both freakish athletes for their size.
With that said this fight could very easily go either way. If Lesnar imposes his will on Carwin I can't see him lasting five rounds on his back. But Lesnar hasn't faced anyone with punching power anywhere close to Carwin's.
I'm picking Carwin's wrestling to be just good enough to keep it standing where he will touch Lesnar enough times to end this fight. I'm picking Carwin to win by TKO in the first round and become the new UFC heavyweight champion.
Main Card:
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Chris Leben
Akiyama is 13-1 with 12 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler first with a solid striking game as well. Akiyama has faced some tough fighters with good results. In fact his only loss came in a K-1 open weight bout against a heavyweight.
Leben is 20-6 with 15 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with a decent grappling pedigree. He has fought a lot of tough fighters with mixed results.
Even though Akiyama has also been out for a year I don't see that being an issue in this fight. As long as Akiyama doesn't get stupid and tries to stand toe to toe with Leben he shouldn't have any issues in this fight. Akiyama will want to use angles and speed to set up a take down where he can put the fight in his world.
On the ground Leben can only survive for so long before he succumbs to Akiyama's superior jiu jitsu. I'm picking Akiyama to win by submission in the third round.
Chris Lytle vs Matt Brown
Lytle is 28-17-5 with 22 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with some boxing skills. He has fought a ton of tough fighters but with less than stellar results.
Brown is 11-8 with all 11 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some grappling skills. He has faced some tough fighters with mixed results.
This should be an interesting match up as both guys are looking to improve their record. Lytle obviously wants this fight on the mat while Brown will want to keep it standing against a grappler the calibre of Lytle.
I think Lytle's experience against some of the best in the game will help him get the job done here as long as he doesn't get caught by a lucky punch. I'm picking Lytle to win by submission in the second round.
Krzysztof Soszynski vs Stephan Bonnar
Soszynski is 19-9-1 with 18 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with solid boxing. He has faced some tough fighters with mixed results.
Bonnar is 11-7 with nine wins by stoppage. He is a grappler who loves to strike. He has faced some tough fighters with mostly negative results.
This is Bonnar's last chance much the same way Keith Jardine got one last shot a couple weeks ago. Bonnar is riding a three fight losing streak courtesy of embarrassing losses to Jon Jones, Mark Coleman, and a controversial loss on cuts due to a headbutt to Soszynski back in Feb.
This fight pairs the two up again to hopefully clear the air after such a controversial decision and to give Bonnar one last (fair) chance to save his UFC career. I still feel that Bonnar would do himself a favor by trying to go to the ground but I don't see him wanting to do that or being successful there.
So they will stand and Soszynski should get the better of the stand up. That's why I'm picking him to win by decision.
George Sotiropoulos vs Kurt Pellegrino
Sotiropoulos is 12-2 with eight wins by stoppage. He is a jiu jitsu fighter with a little boxing. He has faced some tough fighters with mostly positive results. In fact he avenged one of his two losses and his only other loss came to lightweight stand out Shinya Aoki.
Pellegrino is 15-4 with 11 wins by stoppage. He is also a grappler with some striking. He has faced some tough fighters with mixed results.
I get the feeling these two grapplers will cancel each other out on the ground leaving them to try and duke it out. This could go either way since neither is a noted striker but my gut feeling is that Pellegrino will have the edge. I'm picking Pellegrino to win by decision.
Preliminary Card:
Brendan Schaub vs Chris Tuchscherer
Schaub is still a young fighter and could make a stupid mistake against a veteran like Tuchscherer. However, I also think Schaub is more talented than Tuchscherer. He certainly is in the striking department.
So between Schaub's talent and his athleticism I'm picking him to win by TKO in the first round.
Seth Petruzelli vs Ricardo Romero
The Kimbo killer is back! Petruzelli returns to the UFC for the first time since 2007.
Romero has a nice well rounded game but he's going up against his toughest opponent to date while also making his UFC debut. I don't like those odds even if the kid is virtually undefeated.
I'm picking Petruzelli to overwhelm Romero with strikes and grab the TKO win in the first round.
Kendall Grove vs Goran Reljic
Neither of these guys look too good right now. However, while Grove hasn't been able to put anything consistent together in a while Reljic is still coming back from a major injury. So I think he looks much more promising to bounce back right now.
I'm picking Reljic to win by KO in the first round.
Gerald Harris vs Dave Branch
Both of these guys have a lot of upside but neither has proven much at this point in their careers. Harris has faced tougher competition and has fought in the UFC before.
Both have well rounded games but I'm betting Harris' striking and wrestling is better while Branch has the better jiu jitsu. But I'm going to throw logic out the window on this one because Branch represents Brooklyn! I'm picking Branch to stay undefeated with a decision victory.
Daniel Roberts vs Forrest Petz
This is an extremely tough fight to call. Petz is your typical journeyman and hasn't fought in the UFC since 2007. Roberts was a good looking prospect until being promptly KO'd in the first round in his first UFC fight.
I'm going to stick with the promise of Roberts' wrestling and BJJ to get him through this fight. I'm going to pick Roberts to win by submission in the first round.
Jon Madsen vs Karlos Vemola
Both of these guys are wrestlers who have the ability to finish fights. Madsen has been riding a nice little wave since being on TUF 10.
I see that continuing here. I think Madsen probably has the better wrestling and also has some UFC experience. I'm picking Madsen to stay undefeated with a decision victory.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Strikeforce Fedor vs Werdum Preview
"The Last Emperor" Fedor Emelianenko returns this Saturday to defend his status as the best heavyweight fighter in the world. Fedor takes on Fabricio Werdum in a non title fight, though should he win it will likely cement a title bout against Alistair Overeem later this year.
Also on the card is arguably the greatest female fighter on the planet Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos defending her Featherweight title. Rounding out the card is a rematch between Cung Le and Scott Smith as well as former lightweight champ Josh Thomson. Let's break down the card:
Main Event:
Fedor Emelianenko vs Fabricio Werdum
Fedor is 32-1 with 25 wins by stoppage. He has a strong background in Sambo, Judo, and Boxing. He has fought some of the best fighters in the world and is widely regarded as the best heavyweight fighter on the planet.
Werdum is 13-4-1 with 11 wins by stoppage. He has a strong background in BJJ, Judo, and Muay Thai. He has also faced top competition with slightly more mixed results but actually owns a win over Fedor's brother Aleksander and current Strikeforce heavyweight champ Overeem.
These fighters are actually more similar than people realize. Both have finishing power in their hands but both are actually more accomplished grapplers. However, if anyone has watched either of these two men fight even a newcomer can tell who is better.
This fight could be sloppy on the feet but that's just the way Fedor will want it. He'd rather take his chances there than go to the ground where it could turn into a stalemate. Werdum could land some magic on Fedor but no one's done it yet so I'm not going to start picking against him now.
I've got Fedor by KO in the first round.
Cyborg Santos vs Jan Finney
Santos is 9-1 with seven wins by KO. She is a vicious Muay Thai striker with a developing BJJ game. She has faced some tough fighters on her road to the championship with overwhelmingly positive results.
Finney is 8-7 with four wins by KO. She is a striker. As her record indicates she has faced a lot of tough fighters and often times comes out on the losing end (in one case three times to the same fighter).
This has brutal finish written all over it. Finney is a tough fighter but she is moving up a weight class and Santos is the strongest female fighter I have ever seen. Not to mention Finney won't want to take Cyborg down leaving the fight exactly where Cyborg wants it.
I'm picking Cyborg to win by TKO in the second round to retain her title. Is Strikeforce running out of competition for Cyborg? It certainly looks like it.
Cung Le vs Scott Smith
Le is 6-1 with all six wins by KO. He is a striker with a developing grappling game. He has faced a couple tough fighters with mostly positive results and was the former Strikeforce middleweight champ.
Smith is 17-6 with all 17 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some wrestling ability. He has faced some tough fighters with mixed results.
This is a rematch of what some consider the fight of the year and what was certainly the comeback of the year in 2009. Both of these guys are good strikers. Le is better technically but Smith has more power and has a better chin.
This fight will most likely come down to whose conditioning is better and who has more heart just like the last fight. To be honest Le is seven years older and Smith definitely has the better chin. So with that in mind I'm picking Smith to win by KO in the third round.
Josh Thomson vs Pat Healy
Thomson is 16-3 with 12 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with some kick boxing ability. He has faced some tough fighters with mostly positive results.
Healy is 23-15 with 19 wins by stoppage. He is also a grappler with some striking ability. He has faced quite a few tough fighters but unfortunately with mostly negative results.
As Healy's record indicates this is a "get right" fight for the former champ Thomson. Thomson has much better quality wherever the fight takes place. Not to mention Healy is normally a welterweight and will probably be extra drained for this fight trying to make 155 lbs.
I'm picking Thompson to get back on track with a submission victory in the first round.
Also on the card is arguably the greatest female fighter on the planet Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos defending her Featherweight title. Rounding out the card is a rematch between Cung Le and Scott Smith as well as former lightweight champ Josh Thomson. Let's break down the card:
Main Event:
Fedor Emelianenko vs Fabricio Werdum
Fedor is 32-1 with 25 wins by stoppage. He has a strong background in Sambo, Judo, and Boxing. He has fought some of the best fighters in the world and is widely regarded as the best heavyweight fighter on the planet.
Werdum is 13-4-1 with 11 wins by stoppage. He has a strong background in BJJ, Judo, and Muay Thai. He has also faced top competition with slightly more mixed results but actually owns a win over Fedor's brother Aleksander and current Strikeforce heavyweight champ Overeem.
These fighters are actually more similar than people realize. Both have finishing power in their hands but both are actually more accomplished grapplers. However, if anyone has watched either of these two men fight even a newcomer can tell who is better.
This fight could be sloppy on the feet but that's just the way Fedor will want it. He'd rather take his chances there than go to the ground where it could turn into a stalemate. Werdum could land some magic on Fedor but no one's done it yet so I'm not going to start picking against him now.
I've got Fedor by KO in the first round.
Cyborg Santos vs Jan Finney
Santos is 9-1 with seven wins by KO. She is a vicious Muay Thai striker with a developing BJJ game. She has faced some tough fighters on her road to the championship with overwhelmingly positive results.
Finney is 8-7 with four wins by KO. She is a striker. As her record indicates she has faced a lot of tough fighters and often times comes out on the losing end (in one case three times to the same fighter).
This has brutal finish written all over it. Finney is a tough fighter but she is moving up a weight class and Santos is the strongest female fighter I have ever seen. Not to mention Finney won't want to take Cyborg down leaving the fight exactly where Cyborg wants it.
I'm picking Cyborg to win by TKO in the second round to retain her title. Is Strikeforce running out of competition for Cyborg? It certainly looks like it.
Cung Le vs Scott Smith
Le is 6-1 with all six wins by KO. He is a striker with a developing grappling game. He has faced a couple tough fighters with mostly positive results and was the former Strikeforce middleweight champ.
Smith is 17-6 with all 17 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some wrestling ability. He has faced some tough fighters with mixed results.
This is a rematch of what some consider the fight of the year and what was certainly the comeback of the year in 2009. Both of these guys are good strikers. Le is better technically but Smith has more power and has a better chin.
This fight will most likely come down to whose conditioning is better and who has more heart just like the last fight. To be honest Le is seven years older and Smith definitely has the better chin. So with that in mind I'm picking Smith to win by KO in the third round.
Josh Thomson vs Pat Healy
Thomson is 16-3 with 12 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with some kick boxing ability. He has faced some tough fighters with mostly positive results.
Healy is 23-15 with 19 wins by stoppage. He is also a grappler with some striking ability. He has faced quite a few tough fighters but unfortunately with mostly negative results.
As Healy's record indicates this is a "get right" fight for the former champ Thomson. Thomson has much better quality wherever the fight takes place. Not to mention Healy is normally a welterweight and will probably be extra drained for this fight trying to make 155 lbs.
I'm picking Thompson to get back on track with a submission victory in the first round.
Monday, June 14, 2010
WEC 49 Preview
The WEC returns to free TV this weekend after a two month layoff. The main event features Jamie Varner looking to bounce back after losing his belt to Ben Henderson. Kamal "The Prince of Persia" Shalorus is looking to make a run at a title shot with a win over the former champ.
This card also marks the WEC's first jaunt in to Canada. Let's break down the card:
Main Card:
Jamie Varner vs Kamal Shalorus
Varner is 16-3 with 14 wins by stoppage. He has a very solid grappling background with strong boxing skills as well. He has fought some tough fighters with mostly positive results and was the WEC champion for almost two years.
Shalorus is 6-0-1 with five wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with strong ground and pound. This is definitely his toughest test to date.
This fight will come down to who can impose their will. Shalorus will want to take this fight to the ground. While Varner has a solid jiu jitsu game he'd much rather stand and strike.
I think with Varner's wrestling Shalorus won't be able to run rough shod over him. I'm picking Varner to effectively use his sprawl and brawl to earn a decision victory.
Mark Hominick vs Yves Jabouin
Hominick is 17-8 with 14 wins by stoppage. He is striker with a solid ground game. He has faced some tough fighters with mixed results.
Jabouin is 14-5 with 12 wins by stoppage. He is a striker. He has fought a couple tough guys and lost both fights.
Neither of these guys are exactly stand out fighters. However, it should be an entertaining bout. Jabouin will want to stand and if Hominick is smart he'll take it to the ground.
While Jabouin could catch Hominick I usually like the grapplers in these match ups so I'm picking Hominick to win by decision.
Josh Grispi vs LC Davis
Grispi is 13-1 with 11 wins by stoppage. He has solid striking and grappling skills. He has fought a few tough guys since moving over to the WEC with positive results.
Davis is 16-2 with 11 wins by stoppage. He has a wrestling background but a well rounded skill set. He has fought some tough fighters with mixed results.
Both fighters are up and comers which makes this a tough fight to call especially since both are so well rounded. However, I think Davis' wrestling will be the difference. I'm picking Davis to grind out a tough decision victory.
Chris Horodecki vs Ed Ratcliff
Horodecki is 13-2 with seven wins by stoppage. He is a kick boxer. He has fought some tough fighters with mixed results.
Ratcliff is 7-2 with six wins by stoppage. He is a striker. He has fought some tough fighters with less than stellar results.
This should be a fun stand up battle. This is another tough battle to call because I don't think either fighter is significantly better at striking. So I'm going to take a shot in the dark and pick Ratcliff to win by TKO in the first round.
Eddie Wineland vs Will Campuzano
Wineland is 16-6-1 with nine wins by stoppage. He has solid grappling and striking. He has fought some tough guys with mixed results.
Campuzano is 7-1 with six wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission ability. He has one fight against notable competition which he lost.
I think Wineland's experience and grappling should be the difference in this fight. I'm picking him to get the win by submission in the first round.
Preliminary Card:
Karen Darabedyan vs Will Kerr
Karen's experience against better competition and his wrestling should be the difference in this fight. I'm picking Karen to grind out a decision victory.
Wagnney Fabiano vs Frank Gomez
Fabiano was one of the top featherweights in the world before losing unceremoniously to Semerizer two fights ago. Since then he has dropped down to bantamweight only making him more dangerous.
I don't think Gomez will have an answer for Fabiano's jiu jitsu. I'm picking Fabiano to win by submission in the first round.
Erik Koch vs Bendy Cassimir
Both guys are talented grapplers. They may wind up cancelling each other out on the ground and this could turn into a stand up fight. However, I think Koch is the more talented fighter so I'm going to go with him to win by TKO in the first round.
Raphael Assuncao vs Diego Nunes
Assuncao is an extremely talented submission artist. Nunes is more well rounded but is also extremely talented. This should be a good fight no matter where it winds up but I'm picking Assuncao's experience and BJJ to carry him through. I'm picking Assuncao to win by decision.
Rafael Rebello vs Chris Cariaso
Both of these fighters and still looking to breakthrough for an organization. Rebello should have the advantage on the ground while Cariaso should have the advantage on the feet.
Both fighters are well rounded but Cariaso appears to be the better fighter at this point in their careers. I'll pick Cariaso to win by decision.
This card also marks the WEC's first jaunt in to Canada. Let's break down the card:
Main Card:
Jamie Varner vs Kamal Shalorus
Varner is 16-3 with 14 wins by stoppage. He has a very solid grappling background with strong boxing skills as well. He has fought some tough fighters with mostly positive results and was the WEC champion for almost two years.
Shalorus is 6-0-1 with five wins by stoppage. He is a wrestler with strong ground and pound. This is definitely his toughest test to date.
This fight will come down to who can impose their will. Shalorus will want to take this fight to the ground. While Varner has a solid jiu jitsu game he'd much rather stand and strike.
I think with Varner's wrestling Shalorus won't be able to run rough shod over him. I'm picking Varner to effectively use his sprawl and brawl to earn a decision victory.
Mark Hominick vs Yves Jabouin
Hominick is 17-8 with 14 wins by stoppage. He is striker with a solid ground game. He has faced some tough fighters with mixed results.
Jabouin is 14-5 with 12 wins by stoppage. He is a striker. He has fought a couple tough guys and lost both fights.
Neither of these guys are exactly stand out fighters. However, it should be an entertaining bout. Jabouin will want to stand and if Hominick is smart he'll take it to the ground.
While Jabouin could catch Hominick I usually like the grapplers in these match ups so I'm picking Hominick to win by decision.
Josh Grispi vs LC Davis
Grispi is 13-1 with 11 wins by stoppage. He has solid striking and grappling skills. He has fought a few tough guys since moving over to the WEC with positive results.
Davis is 16-2 with 11 wins by stoppage. He has a wrestling background but a well rounded skill set. He has fought some tough fighters with mixed results.
Both fighters are up and comers which makes this a tough fight to call especially since both are so well rounded. However, I think Davis' wrestling will be the difference. I'm picking Davis to grind out a tough decision victory.
Chris Horodecki vs Ed Ratcliff
Horodecki is 13-2 with seven wins by stoppage. He is a kick boxer. He has fought some tough fighters with mixed results.
Ratcliff is 7-2 with six wins by stoppage. He is a striker. He has fought some tough fighters with less than stellar results.
This should be a fun stand up battle. This is another tough battle to call because I don't think either fighter is significantly better at striking. So I'm going to take a shot in the dark and pick Ratcliff to win by TKO in the first round.
Eddie Wineland vs Will Campuzano
Wineland is 16-6-1 with nine wins by stoppage. He has solid grappling and striking. He has fought some tough guys with mixed results.
Campuzano is 7-1 with six wins by stoppage. He is a striker with some submission ability. He has one fight against notable competition which he lost.
I think Wineland's experience and grappling should be the difference in this fight. I'm picking him to get the win by submission in the first round.
Preliminary Card:
Karen Darabedyan vs Will Kerr
Karen's experience against better competition and his wrestling should be the difference in this fight. I'm picking Karen to grind out a decision victory.
Wagnney Fabiano vs Frank Gomez
Fabiano was one of the top featherweights in the world before losing unceremoniously to Semerizer two fights ago. Since then he has dropped down to bantamweight only making him more dangerous.
I don't think Gomez will have an answer for Fabiano's jiu jitsu. I'm picking Fabiano to win by submission in the first round.
Erik Koch vs Bendy Cassimir
Both guys are talented grapplers. They may wind up cancelling each other out on the ground and this could turn into a stand up fight. However, I think Koch is the more talented fighter so I'm going to go with him to win by TKO in the first round.
Raphael Assuncao vs Diego Nunes
Assuncao is an extremely talented submission artist. Nunes is more well rounded but is also extremely talented. This should be a good fight no matter where it winds up but I'm picking Assuncao's experience and BJJ to carry him through. I'm picking Assuncao to win by decision.
Rafael Rebello vs Chris Cariaso
Both of these fighters and still looking to breakthrough for an organization. Rebello should have the advantage on the ground while Cariaso should have the advantage on the feet.
Both fighters are well rounded but Cariaso appears to be the better fighter at this point in their careers. I'll pick Cariaso to win by decision.
The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Preview
Now that the coaches have done battle it's time for The Ultimate Fighter 11 finale. The main event (surprisingly not the TUF championship fight) features Matt Hamill vs Keith Jardine.
This is a fight between fighters moving in two directions. Hamill has won his last three fights while Jardine has lost his last three. This is a critical fight for Jardine to remain in the UFC.
The co main event is the TUF 11 championship fight between Court McGee and Kris McCray. Both fighters impressed on the show having both lost an early fight and coming back to make it to the finale due to injury and winning the wild card fight respectively.
The rest of the card is littered with other TUF participants past and present as well as UFC journeymen. Let's break down the card:
Main Event:
Matt Hamill vs Keith Jardine
Hamill is 8-2 with five wins by KO. He is a wrestler with improving striking. He has fought some tough fighters with mixed results.
Jardine is 15-7-1 with nine wins by stoppage. He is a kick boxer first with an under rated ground game. He has fought the best in the business unfortunately with average results at best.
If Jardine isn't at his hungriest for this fight he's going to be in for a long night. Hamill's stand up has looked better with each fight and while it might not compare with Jardine's he can do enough on the feet to set up the take down which is what he'll really want.
Jardine always comes in well prepared but he unfortunately just doesn't have the most talent. In fact his greatest asset is his unorthodox striking style. That won't be enough even with his under rated ground game.
Hamill should be able to get this fight to the ground and control Jardine for three rounds and do some damage. I'm picking Hamill to get the TKO victory in the third round.
Court McGee vs Kris McCray
McGee is 8-1 (3-1 on the show) with four wins by stoppage. He has a very solid ground game but is fairly well rounded. He has faced a couple tough fighters off the show with mixed results.
McCray is 5-0 (4-1 on the show) with all five wins by stoppage. He also has a solid ground game but he likes to slug it out. He hasn't faced anyone of note.
McCray is probably the more overwhelming physical force but I think he throws caution to the wind a little too much and his conditioning isn't as solid as McGee's. I also think McGee will be more prepared mentally for this fight.
I'm picking McGee to win a tough decision to become the next Ultimate Fighter champion.
Chris Leben vs Aaron Simpson
Leben is 19-6 with 14 wins by stoppage. He loves to box but has developed his grappling skills as well. He has fought a lot of tough fighters but usually is not the winner in those battles.
Simpson is 7-0 with six wins by KO. He is a wrestler with strong ground and pound. This might be his toughest test to date.
Simpson hasn't been tested much in his very young career but I'm not sure this will be his first real test. Leben could catch Simpson with a big punch but if that doesn't happen I think Simpson will take him down and grind out the victory.
I'm picking Simpson to keep his undefeated streak alive with a decision victory.
Spencer Fisher vs Dennis Siver
Fisher is 23-5 with 19 wins by stoppage. He is a well rounded fighter with striking and jiu jitsu skills. He has fought a lot of tough fighters with average results.
Siver is 15-7 with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with solid kick boxing. He has fought some tough fighters but often does not come out on top of those fights.
Both fighter's have well rounded games even though each specializes on one end of the spectrum. Literally anything could happen in this fight but I think Fisher has more experience against better fighters and is simply the better overall fighter.
I'm picking Fisher to win a close decision.
Jamie Yager vs Rich Attonito
Yager is 2-1 (2-1 on the show) with both wins by KO. He is a striker. He hasn't fought anyone of note.
Attonito is 7-3 (2-0 on the show) with five wins by stoppage. He has solid striking and grappling.
Personally I just want to see Attonito smash Yager but I know it's not that easy with Yager's striking. Yager could easily catch Attonito but I'm hoping Attonito takes him down pounds the will out of him.
I'm picking Attonito to win by TKO in the third round.
Preliminary Card
John Gunderson vs Mark Holst
Gunderson has way more experience and Holst is making his UFC debut. Gunderson should have the advantage on the ground. Holst could pull this fight out but I never like rookies so I'm picking Gunderson to win a decision.
Brad Tavares vs Seth Baczynski
Seth has a stronger ground game but I think Tavares is the better overall fighter. If he can keep the fight standing he should have a pretty good chance. I'm picking Tavares to win by decision.
Kyle Noke vs Josh Bryant
Both guys are super tough and have solid wrestling backgrounds. I think Noke's jiu jitsu and stand up is a little better and Bryant's wrestling is a little better.
Noke also has much more experience against tougher opponents. I think when you put all that together Noke will pull out the decision win.
James Hammortree vs Chris Camozzi
Hammortree did not have a great showing and Camozzi was sent home with an injury so neither guy shined. Hamortree should have the better wrestling and ground and pound while Camozzi has the better jiu jitsu. The stand up is probably a toss up.
I think Hammortree's ground and pound will nullify Camozzi's BJJ. I'm picking Hammortree to win by decision.
James McSweeny vs Travis Browne
This should be a good stand up battle. Either fighter could pull this out and even though McSweeny got all the hype from being on TUF 10 I think Browne is the better fighter. I'm picking Browne to win by TKO in the second round.
This is a fight between fighters moving in two directions. Hamill has won his last three fights while Jardine has lost his last three. This is a critical fight for Jardine to remain in the UFC.
The co main event is the TUF 11 championship fight between Court McGee and Kris McCray. Both fighters impressed on the show having both lost an early fight and coming back to make it to the finale due to injury and winning the wild card fight respectively.
The rest of the card is littered with other TUF participants past and present as well as UFC journeymen. Let's break down the card:
Main Event:
Matt Hamill vs Keith Jardine
Hamill is 8-2 with five wins by KO. He is a wrestler with improving striking. He has fought some tough fighters with mixed results.
Jardine is 15-7-1 with nine wins by stoppage. He is a kick boxer first with an under rated ground game. He has fought the best in the business unfortunately with average results at best.
If Jardine isn't at his hungriest for this fight he's going to be in for a long night. Hamill's stand up has looked better with each fight and while it might not compare with Jardine's he can do enough on the feet to set up the take down which is what he'll really want.
Jardine always comes in well prepared but he unfortunately just doesn't have the most talent. In fact his greatest asset is his unorthodox striking style. That won't be enough even with his under rated ground game.
Hamill should be able to get this fight to the ground and control Jardine for three rounds and do some damage. I'm picking Hamill to get the TKO victory in the third round.
Court McGee vs Kris McCray
McGee is 8-1 (3-1 on the show) with four wins by stoppage. He has a very solid ground game but is fairly well rounded. He has faced a couple tough fighters off the show with mixed results.
McCray is 5-0 (4-1 on the show) with all five wins by stoppage. He also has a solid ground game but he likes to slug it out. He hasn't faced anyone of note.
McCray is probably the more overwhelming physical force but I think he throws caution to the wind a little too much and his conditioning isn't as solid as McGee's. I also think McGee will be more prepared mentally for this fight.
I'm picking McGee to win a tough decision to become the next Ultimate Fighter champion.
Chris Leben vs Aaron Simpson
Leben is 19-6 with 14 wins by stoppage. He loves to box but has developed his grappling skills as well. He has fought a lot of tough fighters but usually is not the winner in those battles.
Simpson is 7-0 with six wins by KO. He is a wrestler with strong ground and pound. This might be his toughest test to date.
Simpson hasn't been tested much in his very young career but I'm not sure this will be his first real test. Leben could catch Simpson with a big punch but if that doesn't happen I think Simpson will take him down and grind out the victory.
I'm picking Simpson to keep his undefeated streak alive with a decision victory.
Spencer Fisher vs Dennis Siver
Fisher is 23-5 with 19 wins by stoppage. He is a well rounded fighter with striking and jiu jitsu skills. He has fought a lot of tough fighters with average results.
Siver is 15-7 with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with solid kick boxing. He has fought some tough fighters but often does not come out on top of those fights.
Both fighter's have well rounded games even though each specializes on one end of the spectrum. Literally anything could happen in this fight but I think Fisher has more experience against better fighters and is simply the better overall fighter.
I'm picking Fisher to win a close decision.
Jamie Yager vs Rich Attonito
Yager is 2-1 (2-1 on the show) with both wins by KO. He is a striker. He hasn't fought anyone of note.
Attonito is 7-3 (2-0 on the show) with five wins by stoppage. He has solid striking and grappling.
Personally I just want to see Attonito smash Yager but I know it's not that easy with Yager's striking. Yager could easily catch Attonito but I'm hoping Attonito takes him down pounds the will out of him.
I'm picking Attonito to win by TKO in the third round.
Preliminary Card
John Gunderson vs Mark Holst
Gunderson has way more experience and Holst is making his UFC debut. Gunderson should have the advantage on the ground. Holst could pull this fight out but I never like rookies so I'm picking Gunderson to win a decision.
Brad Tavares vs Seth Baczynski
Seth has a stronger ground game but I think Tavares is the better overall fighter. If he can keep the fight standing he should have a pretty good chance. I'm picking Tavares to win by decision.
Kyle Noke vs Josh Bryant
Both guys are super tough and have solid wrestling backgrounds. I think Noke's jiu jitsu and stand up is a little better and Bryant's wrestling is a little better.
Noke also has much more experience against tougher opponents. I think when you put all that together Noke will pull out the decision win.
James Hammortree vs Chris Camozzi
Hammortree did not have a great showing and Camozzi was sent home with an injury so neither guy shined. Hamortree should have the better wrestling and ground and pound while Camozzi has the better jiu jitsu. The stand up is probably a toss up.
I think Hammortree's ground and pound will nullify Camozzi's BJJ. I'm picking Hammortree to win by decision.
James McSweeny vs Travis Browne
This should be a good stand up battle. Either fighter could pull this out and even though McSweeny got all the hype from being on TUF 10 I think Browne is the better fighter. I'm picking Browne to win by TKO in the second round.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Strikeforce LA Preview
Strikeforce returns after a month off this coming Wednesday with a somewhat disappointing offering. Originally the main event was supposed to be Robbie Lawler and Jason Miller for the number one middleweight number contender's spot. But due to Miller's involvement in the brawl two Strikeforce cards ago the promoters didn't want to take any chances. Lawler now faces Renato "Babalu" Sobral at 195 lbs.
On top of the Miller issue is the injury to Bobby Lashley who was also supposed to compete on this card and would've made this card a little more palatable. Last but not least is the surprisingly not so publicized return of former EliteXC lightweight champion (and the last man to beat Nick Diaz) KJ Noons. Noons was supposed to fight Charles Bennet to avenge his only loss but Bennet also pulled out due to injury so Noons faces a dangerous but much less popular fighter.
This card is taking place in LA and coincides with the E3 gaming expo where no doubt the new EA MMA game that Strikeforce is partnering on is a big reason why there is even a card happening at all Weds.
Let's break down the card:
Main Event:
Robbie Lawler vs Babalu Sobral
Lawler is 19-5 with 17 wins by stoppage. He is a boxer with very heavy hands. He has had a very nice career in the top organizations in the world with mostly positive results.
Sobral is 35-8 with 23 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler first with a sick jiu jitsu game and his striking is always getting better. He has also fought a lot of tough competition with mostly positive results.
This is a great match up between two serviceable veterans who can finish a fight. Sobral needs to be very careful on the feet because even at 195 lbs Lawler's power will translate. And Lawler cannot go to the ground with Sobral and expect to not be turned into a pretzel.
So expect a classic striker vs grappler match up. I think Sobral can get this fight to the ground where he should dominate. I'm picking Sobral to pick up a submission victory in the third round.
Marius Zaromskis vs Evangelista "Cyborg" Santos
Zaromskis is 13-4 with 12 wins by stoppage. He is a kickboxer with some wrestling. He has fought a few tough fighters and Santos won't be anything new in the way of superior talent.
Santos is 17-13 with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a muay thai fighter first with a black belt in BJJ. He has fought some tough fighters with less than stellar results.
Santos comes out of the hyper aggressive Chute Boxe Academy and his aggressive fighting style will fall right into the gameplan of Zaromskis. Zaromskis is the better striker and a brutal finisher who will pick up a TKO victory in the first round.
Tim Kennedy vs Trevor Prangley
Kennedy is 11-2 with 10 wins by stoppage. He is a boxer with a solid jiu jitsu game. He has faced a couple tough opponents with mixed results.
Prangley is 22-5-1 with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler first with a jiu jitsu and wrestling background but he also has a developing boxing game. He has faced some tough fighters with some less than great results.
Prangley has a vast experience advantage but that's where the distinct advantages end. Prangley could catch Kennedy on the ground but I would expect Kennedy to try and stand with Prangley where Kennedy has a bigger edge. I'm picking Kennedy to win a tough fought decision.
Conor Huen vs KJ Noons
Huen is 8-3 with six wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with a background in wrestling and jiu jitsu. Huen has fought a couple tough guys but this is easily his toughest test to date.
Noons is 8-1 with seven wins by KO. He is a striker with a background in professional boxing. He has fought a few tough fighters with mostly positive results.
Noons just fought in March but before then had been on almost a two year layoff so he's probably still fighting some ring rust. As good as Noons is this will not be an easy fight. Noons will want to stand and Huen will want nothing to do with that.
Obviously if Noons gets taken down he's in trouble and if Huen can't get him down Huen is in trouble. I want to pick Huen to pull the upset but I just can't. So I'm going chalk and picking Noons to win a tough decision.
On top of the Miller issue is the injury to Bobby Lashley who was also supposed to compete on this card and would've made this card a little more palatable. Last but not least is the surprisingly not so publicized return of former EliteXC lightweight champion (and the last man to beat Nick Diaz) KJ Noons. Noons was supposed to fight Charles Bennet to avenge his only loss but Bennet also pulled out due to injury so Noons faces a dangerous but much less popular fighter.
This card is taking place in LA and coincides with the E3 gaming expo where no doubt the new EA MMA game that Strikeforce is partnering on is a big reason why there is even a card happening at all Weds.
Let's break down the card:
Main Event:
Robbie Lawler vs Babalu Sobral
Lawler is 19-5 with 17 wins by stoppage. He is a boxer with very heavy hands. He has had a very nice career in the top organizations in the world with mostly positive results.
Sobral is 35-8 with 23 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler first with a sick jiu jitsu game and his striking is always getting better. He has also fought a lot of tough competition with mostly positive results.
This is a great match up between two serviceable veterans who can finish a fight. Sobral needs to be very careful on the feet because even at 195 lbs Lawler's power will translate. And Lawler cannot go to the ground with Sobral and expect to not be turned into a pretzel.
So expect a classic striker vs grappler match up. I think Sobral can get this fight to the ground where he should dominate. I'm picking Sobral to pick up a submission victory in the third round.
Marius Zaromskis vs Evangelista "Cyborg" Santos
Zaromskis is 13-4 with 12 wins by stoppage. He is a kickboxer with some wrestling. He has fought a few tough fighters and Santos won't be anything new in the way of superior talent.
Santos is 17-13 with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a muay thai fighter first with a black belt in BJJ. He has fought some tough fighters with less than stellar results.
Santos comes out of the hyper aggressive Chute Boxe Academy and his aggressive fighting style will fall right into the gameplan of Zaromskis. Zaromskis is the better striker and a brutal finisher who will pick up a TKO victory in the first round.
Tim Kennedy vs Trevor Prangley
Kennedy is 11-2 with 10 wins by stoppage. He is a boxer with a solid jiu jitsu game. He has faced a couple tough opponents with mixed results.
Prangley is 22-5-1 with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a grappler first with a jiu jitsu and wrestling background but he also has a developing boxing game. He has faced some tough fighters with some less than great results.
Prangley has a vast experience advantage but that's where the distinct advantages end. Prangley could catch Kennedy on the ground but I would expect Kennedy to try and stand with Prangley where Kennedy has a bigger edge. I'm picking Kennedy to win a tough fought decision.
Conor Huen vs KJ Noons
Huen is 8-3 with six wins by stoppage. He is a grappler with a background in wrestling and jiu jitsu. Huen has fought a couple tough guys but this is easily his toughest test to date.
Noons is 8-1 with seven wins by KO. He is a striker with a background in professional boxing. He has fought a few tough fighters with mostly positive results.
Noons just fought in March but before then had been on almost a two year layoff so he's probably still fighting some ring rust. As good as Noons is this will not be an easy fight. Noons will want to stand and Huen will want nothing to do with that.
Obviously if Noons gets taken down he's in trouble and if Huen can't get him down Huen is in trouble. I want to pick Huen to pull the upset but I just can't. So I'm going chalk and picking Noons to win a tough decision.
Monday, June 7, 2010
UFC 115 Preview
The UFC returns this weekend after only a two week lay off. UFC 115 will be the fourth show in Canada for the organization and the first one held in Vancouver which just sanctioned the sport in December of last year.
The main event was originally going to be Liddell vs Tito Ortiz 3 as the two had been the original coaches of The Ultimate Fighter Season 11. However, Ortiz pulled out with a neck injury and Rich Franklin has stepped in to fill his place. While this match up doesn't feature the pure hate it should actually be a more interesting fight as Franklin isn't as washed up as Ortiz is.
The rest of the card is filled with up and comers and plenty of fighters looking to bounce back or break through. Let's break it down:
Main Event:
Chuck Liddell vs Rich Franklin
Liddell is 21-7 with 14 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with solid wrestling. Chuck has fought the best of the best and held the UFC light heavyweight title for over two years.
Franklin is 26-5 with 23 wins by stoppage. He is also a striker but with a more advanced jiu jitsu game. He has also fought the best of the best but most of those fights were at middleweight where he held the UFC belt for over a year.
Both of these guys are living legends. One is already in the hall of fame and one is on his way. However, both have fallen on hard times recently. Franklin has been fluctuating between 205 and 195 for his last four fights just to get fights outside of 185 lbs. He also was recently destroyed by Vitor Belfort in the first round almost nine months ago.
Liddell hasn't fought in over a year after contemplating retirement and is riding his own two fight losing streak both by (T)KO. Both of these fighters claim they're not done but Chuck needs this much worse than Franklin. Chuck is five years older, hasn't fought in a longer time, and is riding a longer losing streak.
Whether or not this turns into greater motivation one can only hope. Either of these guys could easily knock out the other and I'm sure that's what they both plan on doing. I think Chuck is the bigger fighter and harder puncher. But I think Rich will be in better shape and has the better technical striking.
This could totally go Chuck's way but I'm leaning toward Rich ending Liddell's career for good. I'm picking him to win by TKO in the second round.
Main Card:
Mirko Cro Cop vs Pat Barry
Cro Cop is 26-7-2 with 23 wins by stoppage. He is a pure kickboxer. He has fought some of the best fighters in the world and was the Pride open weight grand prix champion in 2006.
Barry is 5-1 with all five wins by KO. He is also a pure kickboxer. Barry has not fought any tough competition yet.
Much like the main event this may not be the best fight you'll ever see but it should be fun to watch! Cro Cop's career is in even worse shape than Liddell or Franklin having not won a meaningful fight since 2006 and going 3-3 in the UFC against less than stellar competition.
Barry is on the rise in the UFC going 2-1 and coming off a KO of the night victory over another noted striker Antoni Hardonk.
I personally feel that Cro Cop shouldn't even be licensed to fight anymore. He could pull off the spectacular but my bet is on Barry to end his night with a KO in the first round.
Paulo Thiago vs Martin Kampmann
Thiago is 13-1 with 10 wins by stoppage. He is a noted grappler but has really come a long way with his striking. He has fought some tough fighters and his only loss is to Jon Fitch who everyone loses to but GSP.
Kampmann is 16-3 with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a very good striker with an underappreciated ground game. He has fought some tough fighters but can't seem to get over the hill to a title shot.
This is a very interesting match up. Kampmann will want to stand but he should not underestimate Thiago's striking. Thiago probably wants to take the fight to the mat but he shouldn't underestimate Kampmann's grappling.
This should make for a very interesting chess match where the slightest mistake at any level could end one of their nights. I like Kampmann but Thiago has really impressed me since coming to the UFC. I'm picking Thiago to win by TKO in the first round.
Ben Rothwell vs Gilbert Yvel
Rothwell is 30-7 with 28 wins by stoppage. He is a striker first with a better than you would expect ground game. Rothwell has fought some tough fighters but usually with less than stellar results.
Yvel is 36-14-1 with all 36 wins by stoppage. He is a noted kickboxer. Yvel has fought some tough guys as well but also hasn't usually come out on the winning end.
On paper this looks like an interesting fight but I'm not sure Rothwell is going to trade with Yvel. If he does it could be a quick night for either one of them. If Rothwell is smart enough to take it to the ground he'll grind out a decision victory.
I could be very wrong but I'm picking Rothwell to win by decision. I hope this ends this farce of a signing. Yvel doesn't belong in the same cage with the rest of the UFC heavyweight roster.
Carlos Condit vs Rory MacDonald
Condit is 24-5 with 23 wins by stoppage. He has a nice blend of striking and BJJ. He has fought a few tough guys with mixed results.
MacDonald is 10-0 with all 10 wins by stoppage. He also has a strong mix of striking and BJJ. This is far and away MacDonald's toughest fight to date.
MacDonald might be undefeated but I don't see that record staying unblemished for long. Both fighters have a very well rounded game but Condit is the better fighter at this point of his career in my opinion.
I'm picking Condit to win by submission in the first round.
Preliminary Card on Spike:
Tyson Griffin vs Evan Dunham
Dunham will want to take this fight to the ground but Griffin's wrestling is too good for that to happen. Expect Griffin to hurt Dunham on the feet and then ride out the decision victory in top control to end Dunham's unbeaten streak.
Mac Danzig vs Matt Wiman
This is a very tough fight to pick and really could go either way. I think Wiman's wrestling will be the difference. Danzig is good on the ground but I don't see him taking Wiman down. I expect Wiman to take down Danzig and grind out a decision victory most likely ending Danzig's UFC career.
Preliminary Card:
David Loiseau vs Mario Miranda
Loiseau has been brought back from the UFC dead more than Jason and Freddy Kruger combined (okay not really but it's been at least three times now). This is another tough fight to call. Loiseau is a very good striker and has experience against tough fighters. However, he hasn't won a fight in the UFC since 2005.
Miranda had an awful UFC debut and has never fought anyone of note. He is a grappler first and I tend to rely on the grapplers in these tough calls (esepcially ones with a strong wrestling background). I'm picking Miranda to grind out a tough decision victory.
James Wilks vs Peter Sobotta
Wilks, the TUF 9 champion, is looking to rebound from a tough KO loss. Sobotta is looking to notch his first win in the UFC after a less than stellar debut. Wilks has the better ground game while Sobotta is probably the better striker.
In this case I'm actually going to go with the striker since they might cancel each other out on the ground. I'm picking Sobotta to win by TKO in the third round.
Ricardo Funch vs Claude Patrick
This is another tough fight to call. Funch has a strong grappling background but enjoys to strike. Patrick is more of a pure grappler. Neither has fought great competition but Funch at least has gotten his first UFC fight jitters out of the way.
I'm picking Funch to win by decision.
Mike Pyle vs Jesse Lennox
This fight should be interesting. Lennox loves to wrestle and ground and pound while Pyle is a jiu jitsu fighter. As experienced as Pyle is compared to Lennox (and he has a lot more experience against better competition) I don't think he'll hold up on his back. I'm picking Pyle to win by TKO in the second round.
The main event was originally going to be Liddell vs Tito Ortiz 3 as the two had been the original coaches of The Ultimate Fighter Season 11. However, Ortiz pulled out with a neck injury and Rich Franklin has stepped in to fill his place. While this match up doesn't feature the pure hate it should actually be a more interesting fight as Franklin isn't as washed up as Ortiz is.
The rest of the card is filled with up and comers and plenty of fighters looking to bounce back or break through. Let's break it down:
Main Event:
Chuck Liddell vs Rich Franklin
Liddell is 21-7 with 14 wins by stoppage. He is a striker with solid wrestling. Chuck has fought the best of the best and held the UFC light heavyweight title for over two years.
Franklin is 26-5 with 23 wins by stoppage. He is also a striker but with a more advanced jiu jitsu game. He has also fought the best of the best but most of those fights were at middleweight where he held the UFC belt for over a year.
Both of these guys are living legends. One is already in the hall of fame and one is on his way. However, both have fallen on hard times recently. Franklin has been fluctuating between 205 and 195 for his last four fights just to get fights outside of 185 lbs. He also was recently destroyed by Vitor Belfort in the first round almost nine months ago.
Liddell hasn't fought in over a year after contemplating retirement and is riding his own two fight losing streak both by (T)KO. Both of these fighters claim they're not done but Chuck needs this much worse than Franklin. Chuck is five years older, hasn't fought in a longer time, and is riding a longer losing streak.
Whether or not this turns into greater motivation one can only hope. Either of these guys could easily knock out the other and I'm sure that's what they both plan on doing. I think Chuck is the bigger fighter and harder puncher. But I think Rich will be in better shape and has the better technical striking.
This could totally go Chuck's way but I'm leaning toward Rich ending Liddell's career for good. I'm picking him to win by TKO in the second round.
Main Card:
Mirko Cro Cop vs Pat Barry
Cro Cop is 26-7-2 with 23 wins by stoppage. He is a pure kickboxer. He has fought some of the best fighters in the world and was the Pride open weight grand prix champion in 2006.
Barry is 5-1 with all five wins by KO. He is also a pure kickboxer. Barry has not fought any tough competition yet.
Much like the main event this may not be the best fight you'll ever see but it should be fun to watch! Cro Cop's career is in even worse shape than Liddell or Franklin having not won a meaningful fight since 2006 and going 3-3 in the UFC against less than stellar competition.
Barry is on the rise in the UFC going 2-1 and coming off a KO of the night victory over another noted striker Antoni Hardonk.
I personally feel that Cro Cop shouldn't even be licensed to fight anymore. He could pull off the spectacular but my bet is on Barry to end his night with a KO in the first round.
Paulo Thiago vs Martin Kampmann
Thiago is 13-1 with 10 wins by stoppage. He is a noted grappler but has really come a long way with his striking. He has fought some tough fighters and his only loss is to Jon Fitch who everyone loses to but GSP.
Kampmann is 16-3 with 13 wins by stoppage. He is a very good striker with an underappreciated ground game. He has fought some tough fighters but can't seem to get over the hill to a title shot.
This is a very interesting match up. Kampmann will want to stand but he should not underestimate Thiago's striking. Thiago probably wants to take the fight to the mat but he shouldn't underestimate Kampmann's grappling.
This should make for a very interesting chess match where the slightest mistake at any level could end one of their nights. I like Kampmann but Thiago has really impressed me since coming to the UFC. I'm picking Thiago to win by TKO in the first round.
Ben Rothwell vs Gilbert Yvel
Rothwell is 30-7 with 28 wins by stoppage. He is a striker first with a better than you would expect ground game. Rothwell has fought some tough fighters but usually with less than stellar results.
Yvel is 36-14-1 with all 36 wins by stoppage. He is a noted kickboxer. Yvel has fought some tough guys as well but also hasn't usually come out on the winning end.
On paper this looks like an interesting fight but I'm not sure Rothwell is going to trade with Yvel. If he does it could be a quick night for either one of them. If Rothwell is smart enough to take it to the ground he'll grind out a decision victory.
I could be very wrong but I'm picking Rothwell to win by decision. I hope this ends this farce of a signing. Yvel doesn't belong in the same cage with the rest of the UFC heavyweight roster.
Carlos Condit vs Rory MacDonald
Condit is 24-5 with 23 wins by stoppage. He has a nice blend of striking and BJJ. He has fought a few tough guys with mixed results.
MacDonald is 10-0 with all 10 wins by stoppage. He also has a strong mix of striking and BJJ. This is far and away MacDonald's toughest fight to date.
MacDonald might be undefeated but I don't see that record staying unblemished for long. Both fighters have a very well rounded game but Condit is the better fighter at this point of his career in my opinion.
I'm picking Condit to win by submission in the first round.
Preliminary Card on Spike:
Tyson Griffin vs Evan Dunham
Dunham will want to take this fight to the ground but Griffin's wrestling is too good for that to happen. Expect Griffin to hurt Dunham on the feet and then ride out the decision victory in top control to end Dunham's unbeaten streak.
Mac Danzig vs Matt Wiman
This is a very tough fight to pick and really could go either way. I think Wiman's wrestling will be the difference. Danzig is good on the ground but I don't see him taking Wiman down. I expect Wiman to take down Danzig and grind out a decision victory most likely ending Danzig's UFC career.
Preliminary Card:
David Loiseau vs Mario Miranda
Loiseau has been brought back from the UFC dead more than Jason and Freddy Kruger combined (okay not really but it's been at least three times now). This is another tough fight to call. Loiseau is a very good striker and has experience against tough fighters. However, he hasn't won a fight in the UFC since 2005.
Miranda had an awful UFC debut and has never fought anyone of note. He is a grappler first and I tend to rely on the grapplers in these tough calls (esepcially ones with a strong wrestling background). I'm picking Miranda to grind out a tough decision victory.
James Wilks vs Peter Sobotta
Wilks, the TUF 9 champion, is looking to rebound from a tough KO loss. Sobotta is looking to notch his first win in the UFC after a less than stellar debut. Wilks has the better ground game while Sobotta is probably the better striker.
In this case I'm actually going to go with the striker since they might cancel each other out on the ground. I'm picking Sobotta to win by TKO in the third round.
Ricardo Funch vs Claude Patrick
This is another tough fight to call. Funch has a strong grappling background but enjoys to strike. Patrick is more of a pure grappler. Neither has fought great competition but Funch at least has gotten his first UFC fight jitters out of the way.
I'm picking Funch to win by decision.
Mike Pyle vs Jesse Lennox
This fight should be interesting. Lennox loves to wrestle and ground and pound while Pyle is a jiu jitsu fighter. As experienced as Pyle is compared to Lennox (and he has a lot more experience against better competition) I don't think he'll hold up on his back. I'm picking Pyle to win by TKO in the second round.
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